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The sharp rise in US import tariffs is expected to weigh on economic growth. However, conflicting factors make the ultimate impact on inflation uncertain. Interestingly, US TIPS have been signalling that these crosscurrents could eventually lead to disinflation.US firms not keen to reshore productionIt has seemed clear that Trump intends to use tariffs for multiple purposes such as to impact trade and US manufacturing, use it as a negotiation tool, and raise revenue for the US to help reduce deficit or channelize this additional revenue in personal income tax reduction. (these are the stated objectives- final outcome could be different). A survey by CNBC across 120 US companies suggests that most companies will switch to importing from countries with relatively lower tariffs (and not reshore production). Will Trump ever be able to implement reciprocal tariffs? Perhaps notTrump’s proposed reciprocal tariff plan has been postponed for 90 days—though we remain sceptical about whether it will ever be implemented, especially given the market turmoil that followed its announcement (higher yields and widened corporate bond spreads). Despite Trump’s characteristically bold tweets, US policymakers may be forced to adopt a softer stance toward other nations when negotiating trade terms.With the US applying a general 10% import tariff to most countries, the trade battle is increasingly shaping up as a US-versus-China conflict. China currently imposes tariffs of up to 125% on US goods. In response, the US levied a steep 245% tariff on Chinese imports—excluding electronic items. Escalating the situation further, China has suspended exports of six heavy rare earth metals and rare earth magnets, crucial components for global automakers, aerospace firms, semiconductor companies, and defence contractors.Meanwhile, over 50 countries with significant export exposure to the US are rushing to secure bilateral deals. India, however, is taking a more measured approach. Key sticking points include US demands for greater dairy access, India’s Minimum Support Price (MSP) regime, agricultural protections, patent laws in the pharmaceutical sector, and digital data storage regulations. For now, both sides have finalized the terms of reference, with initial talks scheduled to begin in May.Smaller economies are equally dependent on the US and China for their trade and investment. Taking sides will not be easy.The US will try and form a trade alliance with most other nations against China. But today, most smaller countries are equally dependent on both China and the US for their FDI and trade partnership. The US walking out of EU defence security may not have set a good precedence for Asian counterparts. Hence, the US attempt to form alliances may be wishful thinking.Fiscal stimulus world over – global rates could inch higher.As Trump vows to retaliate against any counter-tariffs or currency interventions, we're already seeing signs of fiscal stimulus emerging outside the U.S.—a form of pushback aimed at supporting domestic demand amid the trade war. This points to a likely increase in global bond supply. At the same time, many central banks are leaning toward monetary easing. The combined effect could be negative for global interest rates.For countries like India, which has so far remained committed to fiscal consolidation and primarily relied on monetary tools, this environment still supports lower rates. However, India’s fiscal position will be crucial to monitor—any signs of slippage could limit the downside for bond yields.Poor success of DOGE. The US may not see fiscal consolidationWe do not see any dramatic fiscal tightening in the US. The roll back of reciprocal tariff means the tariff revenue wouldn’t be as much as hoped for. Further, if there is growth slowdown, it could lead to fall in revenue from elsewhere. Second, DOGE success is dimming. They have scaled down their ambition of spending cuts from US$ 2 trillion to US$ 1 trillion to now just US$ 150 billion for 2026. Finally, there are plans by republicans elsewhere which could lead to higher fiscal deficit over next 10 years (estimated by ~US$ 6 trillion). Hence treasury supply could be large. US Treasury yields rose on capital flightTypically, rising yields reflect either stronger growth prospects or increasing inflation risks. However, US TIPS remain largely unresponsive to the inflationary impact of tariffs, suggesting that investors are still uncertain about how inflation will ultimately be affected. As a result, the recent uptick in yields isn’t driven by higher inflation expectations.Meanwhile, the ambitious fiscal consolidation plans floated in the US a few months ago have been significantly scaled back, and Treasury supply is likely to increase. Still, one of the more notable factors behind rising US yields appears to be capital outflows from the US to regions like Europe and Japan, as indicated by recent currency movements.Given this backdrop, it’s prudent to remain cautious on US duration. That said, there could still be tactical opportunities in both the dollar and fixed income markets.Dollar was supposed to appreciate; What happened?The believed theory was that if the US slaps other economies with tariffs, the US dollar is bound to experience an offsetting mechanistic appreciation. It has not worked out that way so far. DXY has fallen to a six month low. There is a counter thought that the US would become less competitive. Investors were overweight US assets. They are selling it leading to dollar weakness. Typically, inflation concerns would have led to higher interest rates and prospects of rate hikes and eventually USD appreciation. But as of now, the market is undecided on the final inflation outcome. US breakeven inflation rates are falling. All else equal, this increases the chances of the Fed cutting interest rates. If the Fed starts to talk dovish (not the case now), could question the monetary policy independence in the US and further weaken the dollar, despite the rising US treasury yields. Hence, in the near term it appears that the dollar could soften against some of the other safe havens like Yen, Euro may get capped. However, we are still not sure about the dollar move against Asian currencies this year. We have noticed that increasingly post COVID- first due to super expansionary fiscal policy, then freezing of Russian assets, and now due to these idiosyncratic tariffs, the world is questioning the dollar hegemony and safe haven status of US treasuries. Impact of dollar weakness:Inflation and hence demand destruction in the US- stagflation risks, putting Fed in a difficult spot. One has to see if fall in asset prices is arrested by tax cuts and financial deregulation. If not, it also leads to decline in household wealth.If foreign investors fade treasury bonds, financing the US fiscal deficit will become harder. Here again, the market is talking about measures to increase banks’ and Fed’s investment capacity in treasuries, and possibility of buybacks (long duration paper switched for T-bills). It could give additional impetus to gold. US Gold ETF are starting to see net inflows since February and EM gold demand remains strong. The real concern now is that if US Treasuries begin to lose their long-held status as a global safe-haven asset—a role they've maintained since World War II alongside gold—it could trigger a major reallocation in global portfolios. This shift could, in turn, provide further upward momentum for gold prices.How to think of asset classes amidst all this?The diminishing likelihood of fiscal consolidation in the US—combined with rising global bond supply, weakening demand for US Treasuries as a safe haven, and emerging stagflation risks—makes the outlook for Treasuries less favourable. This trend could accelerate if the Fed turns dovish in response to a deteriorating growth outlook. Central banks around the world may begin reassessing their dollar reserves. As a result, the threshold for meaningful dollar appreciation and strong Treasury performance has risen. Going forward, the US may need to demonstrate stronger macroeconomic stability to sustain investor confidence.Looking at it simply: if, with a certain level of inflation and fiscal deficit, US Treasury yields were consistently above 4% through much of 2024, then the introduction of additional risk premia along with similar inflation and fiscal deficit figures should logically push yields even higher. We are sceptical that a dovish Fed will be able to talk yields down as easily this time around, though, as discussed, Treasury is planning to manoeuvre buy banks and enable regulatory changes. As for equities, the market will need to balance the drag from trade uncertainty against the growth boost from a reduced likelihood of aggressive fiscal tightening. Ultimately, the trajectory of US growth could be the key driver for equity performance.In this environment of heightened uncertainty, companies with true multinational operations – able to produce and sell across borders—may prove more resilient. Meanwhile, the case strengthens for domestically focused themes this year, especially consumption-led plays over investment-led ones, and banks that stand to benefit from a monetary easing cycle.(The author, Namrata Mittal is the Chief Economist at SBI Mutual Fund)(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear on Monday a plea seeking a direction to the Centre to take appropriate steps to prohibit streaming of sexually explicit content on over the top (OTT) and social media platforms. The plea has sought laying down of guidelines constituting a National Content Control Authority to prohibit sexually explicit content on these platforms. According to the top court's cause list of April 28, the petition is slated to come up for hearing before a bench of Justices B R Gavai and Augustine George Masih. The plea claimed there were pages or profiles on social media sites that were disseminating pornographic materials without any filter and various OTT platforms were streaming content that also has potential elements of child pornography. "Such sexually deviant material pollute the minds of youth, children and even grown up persons which gives rise to perverted and unnatural sexual tendencies thereby leading to an increase in the crime rate," it said. The plea said if left unchecked, the unregulated spread of obscene material could have severe consequences on societal values, mental health and public safety. It claimed the petitioners have taken numerous steps by sending representations or complaints to the competent authorities, however, the same have yielded no effective result. "It is the need of the hour that the state must uphold its constitutional duty to safeguard public morality, protect vulnerable populations, and ensure that the digital space does not become a breeding ground for deviant behaviour," the plea said. It said affordability and widespread penetration of internet has made explicit materials readily available to users of all ages without any checks. It has sought a direction to the Centre to stop access to social media and OTT platforms until these platforms formulate a mechanism to ensure that all pornographic content is made inaccessible, especially to children and minors in India. The plea has urged the top court to constitute a committee headed by a retired apex court judge and consisting of eminent experts in the field to oversee and certify for publishing or streaming contents on OTT and social media platforms on the lines of the Central Board of Film Certification until a law is enacted to regulate it. It has also sought to constitute an expert committee of reputed psychologists recognised by the Rehabilitation Council of India and other experts to conduct a nationwide study and submit a report to evaluate the adverse impact of sexually explicit content on those consuming such content and its after effects on society at large.

1. Suresh Raina Confirms MS Dhoni's IPL 2026 Plans After CSK's 2025 Debacle  NDTV Sports
2. 'Lowest of lows, if you rest on your laurels...': Ambati Rayudu gives CSK reality check, asks franchise to 'stay humble'  Hindustan Times
3. IPL 2025 qualification scenarios: Two wins in nine matches - can CSK qualify for playoffs?  Times of India
4. Stephen Fleming admits that CSK might have got it wrong at auction table  The Economic Times
5. 'Perfect Time To Give Youngsters A Decent Run': Anil Kumble On Chennai Super Kings Building For The Future-  News18

1. This Week in Explainers: Who will be Pope Francis' successor?  Firstpost
2. Live updates: Pope Francis laid to rest after 250,000 attend funeral service  CNN
3. Pictures of Pope Francis's tomb released as it opens to the public in Rome basilica  Sky News
4. Lobbying for next pope heats up, with outcome less predictable than ever  The Guardian
5. Pope Francis' Legacy Celebrated by Mourners at His Funeral  Time Magazine

1. Community participation and digital innovation vital for universal immunisation: UNDP India chief  The Hindu
2. How India's vaccine programme ensures access for all, even remote areas  Business Standard
3. How two cities in India managed to digitise vaccination status  Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance
4. Digital Health Innovations Reaching Every Shore  United Nations Development Programme

1. House of active terrorist Adnan Shafi demolished in South Kashmirs Shopian  Greater Kashmir
2. 15 local cadres helped Pahalgam attackers: Probe  Times of India
3. Who is Adil Hussain Thokar? The missing student who orchestrated Pahalgam attack  The Financial Express
4. Kashmir crackdown gathers pace – from deep inside forests to capital Srinagar  The Indian Express
5. Terrorists trekked 22 hours through rough terrain for Pahalgam attack: Sources  India Today

1. US deports two-year-old US citizen to Honduras, was done without meaningful process, says judge  The Financial Express
2. Judge suspects 2-year-old US citizen wrongfully deported to Honduras  Times of India
3. US Deports 3 American Children, Including Cancer Patient: Rights Groups  NDTV
4. Two-year-old US citizen may have been deported without 'meaningful process'  BBC
5. US judge says two-year-old citizen appears to have been deported ‘with no meaningful process’  Hindustan Times

राज्य ब्यूरो, पटना। प्रधानमंत्री आवास योजना (ग्रामीण) एवं लोहिया स्वच्छ बिहार अभियान के बेहतर कार्यान्वयन हेतु शनिवार को उन्मुखीकरण कार्यक्रम का आयोजन पटना के ऊर्जा स्टेडियम में हुआ।

समारोह में ग्रामीण विकास मंत्री श्रवण कुमार द्वारा राज्य के 422 प्रखंडों को नए वाहन दिए गए। राज्य स्तर पर बेहतर प्रदर्शन करने वाले 10 प्रखंड विकास पदाधिकारियों (विभूतिपुर, वैशाली, ठाकुरगंज, पंडौल, बेनीपुर, गोगरी, रफीगंज, छातापुर, रून्नीसैदपुर एवं मंझौलिया) को मंत्री ने सम्मानित किया।

उनके अलावा विभाग स्तर पर बेहतर कार्य करने वाले आठ सरकारी सेवक भी सम्मानित हुए। प्रधानमंत्री आवास योजना (ग्रामीण) के क्रियान्वयन में प्रशंसनीय योगदान के लिए 38 प्रखंड विकास पदाधिकारियों को सम्मानित किया गया।

वित्तीय वर्ष 2008-09 में प्रखंड विकास पदाधिकारियों (बीडीओ) को वाहन उपलब्ध कराया गया था। वे वाहन 15 वर्ष से अधिक पुराने हो गए हैं, लिहाजा नए वाहन दिए गए हैं।

प्रथम चरण में कुल 112 प्रखंडों को एक मार्च को ग्रामीण विकास मंत्री श्रवण चौधरी द्वारा सरकारी वाहन दिए गए थे। दूसरे चरण में 388 प्रखंडों को नए वाहन उपलब्ध करा दिए गए हैं। शेष 34 प्रखंडों को भी सप्ताह भीतर वाहन मिल जाएंगे। ग्रामीण विकास विभाग के सचिव लोकेश कुमार सिंह सहित कई अधिकारी कार्यक्रम में उपस्थित रहे।

प्रतीक्षा सूची वालों को भी मिलेगा आवास

प्रधानमंत्री आवास योजना (ग्रामीण) के अंतर्गत वित्तीय वर्ष 2024-25 एवं 2025-26 को मिलाकर कुल 1266842 लक्ष्य प्राप्त है। उसके विरुद्ध 1052594 लाभुकों को प्रथम किस्त, 488107 को द्वितीय किस्त तथा 177053 तृतीय किस्त का भुगतान किया जा चुका है।

प्रतीक्षा सूची से छूटे हुए 8183511 लाभुकों का नाम सर्वेक्षण के बाद आवास प्लस-2024 में सम्मिलित किया गया।

जिलावार वाहनों की संख्या :

• अरवल- 03
• औरंगाबाद- 10
• अररिया- 09
• कटिहार- 13
• किशनगंज- 07
• कैमूर- 09
• खगडिया- 06
• गया- 19
• पटना- 18
• भोजपुर- 11
• बक्सर- 07
• नालंदा- 15
• रोहतास- 13
• जहानाबाद- 06
• नवादा- 10
• मुजफ्फरपुर- 15
• वैशाली- 12
• सीतामढ़ी- 12
• शिवहर- 05
• पश्चिम चंपारण- 16
• पूर्वी चंपारण- 22
• सारण- 16
• सिवान- 18
• गोपालगंज- 10
• दरभंगा- 14
• मधुबनी- 17
• समस्तीपुर- 16
• बेगूसराय- 14
• मुंगेर- 07
• लखीसराय- 06
• शेखपुरा- 02
• जमुई- 07
• भागलपुर- 11
• बांका- 10
• सहरसा- 07
• सुपौल- 09
• मधेपुरा- 09
• पूर्णिया- 11

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जागरण संवाददाता, पटना। Bihar Weather: राजधानी में सुबह से सूरज की तपिश बर्दाश्त से बाहर हो गई थी। दोपहर होते-होते तापमान 43 डिग्री से​ल्सियस पहुंच गया। लोगों का घर से निकलना मु​श्किल हो गया।

वहीं, 44.6 डिग्री सेल्सियस के साथ डेहरी और गया प्रदेश में सबसे गर्म रहा। हालांकि, मौसम विभाग के पूर्वानुमान के अनुसार, आज से मौसम का मिजाज बदलेगा और आंधी-वर्षा होने से गर्मी से थोड़ी राहत मिलेगी।

तेज हवा चलने का येलो अलर्ट

अगले 24 घंटों के दौरान पटना सहित नालंदा, जहानाबाद, गया, नवादा, बेगूसराय, जमुई, बांका, भागलपुर, मुंगेर, खगड़िया के कुछ स्थानों पर मेघ गर्जन, वज्रपात के साथ 30-40 किमी प्रतिघंटा की रफ्तार से तेज हवा चलने को लेकर यलो अलर्ट जारी किया गया है।

वज्रपात और ओला गिरने की चेतावनी

जबकि, चार जिलों के पूर्वी चंपारण, सुपौल, सीतामढ़ी और मधुबनी जिले के एक या दो स्थानों पर 50-60 किमी प्रतिघंटा की रफ्तार से तेज हवा चलने के साथ मेघ गर्जन, वज्रपात और ओला गिरने को लेकर ऑरेंज अलर्ट जारी किया गया है।

उत्तरी क्षेत्रों के अधिकतर भागों में गरज-तड़क के साथ आंधी-पानी की चेतावनी जारी की गई है। 72 घंटों के दौरान अधिकतम तापमान में तीन से पांच डिग्री की गिरावट के आसार है।

मौसम विभाग के अनुसार पूर्वी बिहार और उससे सटे उप हिमालयी पश्चिम बंगाल पर चक्रवाती परिसंचरण का क्षेत्र बना हुआ है। असम और आसपास इलाकों के ऊपर हवा का चक्रवाती परिसंचरण का क्षेत्र बना हुआ है।

इन सभी मौसमी प्रभाव के कारण अगले चार से पांच दिनों तक प्रदेश के अलग-अलग भागों में गरज-तड़क के साथ वर्षा होने के कारण मौसम सामान्य होने के साथ लोगों को भीषण गर्मी से राहत मिलने की संभावना है।

शनिवार को पटना सहित 15 जिलों में भीषण गर्मी का प्रभाव बना रहने के साथ अधिकतम तापमान में वृद्धि दर्ज की गई। पटना का अधिकतम तापमान में 1.4 डिग्री सेल्सियस की वृद्धि के साथ 43.0 डिग्री सेल्सियस जबकि 44.6 डिग्री सेल्सियस के साथ डेहरी और गया सबसे गर्म जिला दर्ज किया गया।

शनिवार को गया में भीषण लू एवं मोतिहारी, शेखपुरा में हीट वेव लू का प्रभाव बना रहा।

प्रमुख शहरों के तापमान में वृद्धि

बीते 24 घंटे के अनुसार गया के अधिकतम तापमान में 1.2 डिग्री, औरंगाबाद में 1.6 डिग्री, डेहरी में 1.2 डिग्री, भोजपुर में 1.2 डिग्री, छपरा में 1.2 डिग्री, बक्सर में 0.5 डिग्री, नालंदा में 1.8 डिग्री और बक्सर में 1.5 डिग्री तथा बांका में 1.5 डिग्री सेल्सियस की वृद्धि दर्ज की गई।

प्रमुख शहरों का तापमान शहर अधिकतम न्यूनतम पटना 43.0 26.2 गया 44.6 23.8 भागलपुर 41.1 23.9 मुजफ्फरपुर 39.2 24.1

(तापमान डिग्री सेल्सियस में)

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