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Mumbai: Japanese investment bank Nomura has split ranks with peers to forecast the Indian central bank will ease rates by a full percentage point starting as early as this Friday, compared with consensus estimates that expect Mint Road to ease the policy rate by only half that level.The investment bank has also scaled down the GDP forecast for FY25 to 6%, below the consensus of 6.9% for the fiscal year and the Reserve Bank of India's forecast of 7.2% made in its October policy review."Slowing GDP growth, moderating credit growth, softer underlying inflation and muted second-round effects should have provided the RBI with the confidence to begin policy easing by now, but it hasn't," Nomura said in its latest report. "We remain positive on India's medium-term outlook."The RBI has kept the policy rates untouched at 6.5% since February 2023. The central bank has been more hawkish on its outlook on inflation due to very high food inflation, which has wider ramifications. At the same time, it has been optimistic about the growth outlook on account of good monsoons and expectations of a revival in capex.India's quarterly growth rate fell to 5.4% year-on-year in the September quarter, prompting the market to scale down the growth forecast for the rest of the year and factor in an earlier-than-expected easing by the central bank starting December 2024 instead of February 2025. The Street, however, is not unanimous in the projection of an early easing by the central bank even after the publication of the latest GDP data.Nomura expects CPI inflation to moderate to 4.9% and the good monsoons this year should also ease food inflation. However, it is concerned about a cyclical slowdown and moderation in investment and industrial demand.

Mumbai: Traders loaded up shares of banks and property developers on Wednesday in a tepid market in anticipation of a cut in the Cash Reserve Ratio - the percentage of a bank's total deposits required to maintain in cash with the RBI - in the central bank's three-day Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on Friday. Analysts favour banks over real estate companies because of cheaper valuations.The Nifty Realty Index and Bank Nifty surged 2.1% and 1.1%, respectively; while the benchmark Nifty ended marginally higher on Wednesday. The Nifty PSU Bank index gained 2.3% and the Nifty Private Bank index inched 0.86% higher. Canara Bank, Federal Bank and Bank of Baroda rose 2-4%.While the central bank is unlikely to cut the Repo rate in the rate-setting meeting, market participants are betting on a cut in CRR in the wake of the lower-than-estimated GDP growth reading of 5.4% in the second quarter, reviving concerns of a slowdown, said analysts."The first step in that direction is anticipated to be a cut in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) this time," said Pankaj Pandey, head of research, ICICI Securities. A reduction of CRR will free up capital with banks, which could be used to lend.115987773"This is likely to benefit rate sensitive sectors like realty, banks and infrastructure," said Pandey. "The risk-reward ratio is attractive for banks, and one should be selective in the realty space given these stocks have already witnessed good price performance in the recent past."So far this year, Nifty Realty index has rallied 36.9% against an up-move of 12.5% in benchmark Nifty. Bank Nifty has gained 10.30% in the same period.Analysts said that banks are trading closer to their historical valuations, while realty stocks are trading at a premium."Most banks are trading at multi-year low valuations, and the risk reward ratio is favourable for investors in these stocks," said Krishna Appala, senior research analyst at Capitalmind. "While realty is fully valued, the growth rate of 25% to 30% is driving investor interest in the realty sector."The rise in outstanding positions in Bank Nifty futures along with an advance in the index on Wednesday suggest build up of bullish bets, said Jay Vora, senior market analyst, indiacharts.com.In last one month, Nifty Realty and Bank Nifty indices gained 10% and 4%, respectively, while benchmark Nifty moved 2% higher."The upswing in banking stocks is expected to continue as financials and valuations offer comfort," said Appala. "Realty stocks could inch higher as long as the growth sustains and justifies the premium valuations."Appala said that investors can have a 'Buy on Dips' approach in realty sector with a preference for larger players that offer better growth visibility."Banks could see a muted price performance in the next few quarters as uncertainty looms over trend reversal in foreign institutional selling," said Pandey. "Tier two level banks, particularly PSU banks, could outperform in the near term.

Mumbai: December 11, 10 am. The person in the 18th floor corner room of the central bank's Mint Street Tower would have to deal with grim truths: a shadow of slowdown, a weaker currency, sticky inflation, and huge expectations to deliver. Will Shaktikanta Das, the longest serving RBI governor, continue to wage the arduous battle? While Das may well get an extension (perhaps for a year), no one would have asked the question even a few months ago. 115983301But despite all the accolades and after running a steady ship, Das is completing his six eventful years in RBI on a sombre note: missing inflation target, senior ministers stoking a simmering controversy over computation of inflation, RBI's reluctance to spot a slowing growth and the regulator's stern measures to diffuse loan bubbles worsening the consumption squeeze. All this is grist to the rumour mills that are spewing names of possible successors: a finmin official, other senior bureaucrats and even one RBI deputy governor with whom a key PMO person had a long chat recently. Rarely, if ever in the past, markets have been left guessing whether the man who is presiding over the crucial 2-day monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting (on Wednesday and Thursday) would be around to oversee the impact of the MPC measures. But gossip, like markets, can take on a life of its own. The fog may clear over the weekend. The chart is a rough scorecard of the story so far.

New Delhi: The Delhi government will recruit 15,000 home guards, taking their total number to 25,000, an official statement said on Wednesday. Delhi LG VK Saxena on Tuesday distributed letters of enrolment to 1669 home guards out of 10,000, for which the recruitment process was started in January, said the statement from the Raj Niwas. Addressing the newly recruited home guards at an event, the LG said that in the near future additional 15,000 home guards will be added, taking their total strength to over 25,000 it said. The newly recruited home guards included 226 former civil defence volunteers (CDVs) who were working as bus marshals when they were removed in November last year. The new recruits also included 181 women, the statement said. The LG in January this year cleared enrolment of 10,285 home guards and directed that the CDVs be given preference in the form of extra credit points in the selection process. However, some candidates approached the court, and as a result, the appointment on 7,939 posts of home guards was kept pending as the matter became sub-judice. The LG, had however, directed appointment of 2,346 home guards who qualified physical measurement and efficiency, and written tests. Out of 2,346 posts, 1669 cleared the medical test and were handed over their appointment letters. In response to the advertisement for 10,285 vacancies, total 1.09 lakh applications were received but only 32,511 reported for the physical test. Meanwhile, the some applicants moved the high court over various issues and a status quo was ordered by the court. The LG has also directed the director general (home guards) to ensure that the remaining 7,939 vacancies are also filled up at the earliest after taking cognizance of the court matters, added the statement.

Kolkata: Muthoot Microfin has reduced interest rates by 25 basis points for microfinance loans given for income generating activities and by 125 basis points for loans to buy third party products.Accordingly, the minimum interest rate for income generating loans is pegged at 23.05%. The rate can go up to 23.7%, based on borrowers' risk profile. This is the third rate reduction by Kerala-based Muthoot Microfin, a part of the Muthoot Pappachan group.ET on November 7 wrote that Muthoot Microfin would cut rates further.The new interest rate range for retail unsecured loans for buying third party product is 22.7% to 23.7%The lender charges a processing fee of 1% to 1.5%.