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The stock market's focus has now shifted to FY26 earnings, which are expected to grow by 12-13%, following a 5-6% earnings downgrade over the past six months, says Srinivas Rao Ravuri, Chief Investment Officer, Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance.While a 12-13% earnings growth rate may not seem particularly strong at first glance, we believe it represents a credible target given the prevailing global uncertainties, he said in an interview with ET Markets.Edited excerpts from a conversation:What is your outlook on equity markets for the next 12–18 months, considering global uncertainties and domestic growth trends? Is this the time to buy the fear?The global environment remains highly volatile, with uncertainties surrounding tariff-related actions by the new U.S. administration. On the domestic front, conditions appear to be improving, as high-frequency indicators suggest a return to growth normalization. Following the market correction over the past six months, valuations—particularly for large-cap stocks—now seem reasonable. Consequently, our outlook for equities has improved from a 12- to 18-month perspective.However, given the inherent volatility of equity markets, we believe investors should adopt a long-term perspective, ideally with a minimum investment horizon of three to five years. Equity investments should be limited to funds that investors do not anticipate needing for at least the next three years.For such long-term horizons, the outlook for Indian equities remains positive, supported by favorable demographics. India’s large and young population aspires to improve their standard of living, including better housing and automobiles. These fundamental aspirations alone can drive substantial economic growth. Additionally, various other evolving societal needs, when met, will further contribute to economic expansion and equity market returns.Thus, we maintain that the long-term outlook for Indian equities remains highly constructive, and in our view, equities continue to be the most effective asset class for long-term wealth creation.With interest rate cycles shifting globally, how do you see Indian markets reacting in the near term?Following a period of relatively synchronized central bank policy actions, we are now witnessing divergence in interest rate cycles across the globe. While the U.S. Federal Reserve maintained the status quo on interest rates in its latest monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) implemented its first rate cut in five years in February. Furthermore, the likelihood of an additional rate cut in the upcoming April policy review remains reasonably high. Meanwhile, Japan’s central bank is expected to hike interest rates in the coming months.Equity markets generally favor lower interest rates, and further rate cuts by the RBI would provide additional support to market sentiment. However, while interest rates are an important factor, they are not the primary concern for equity markets in the current environment. In our view, the key determinant of equity market outlook remains the progress toward a revival in economic activity and corporate earnings growth over the next few quarters.Which sectors do you believe hold the most promise for long-term investors, and why?The banking sector is attractive from a risk-reward perspective. While earnings growth may moderate as credit costs normalize from historically low levels, we still expect banks to deliver strong returns on equity (ROEs). With most banks currently trading at a discount to their historical price-to-book (P/B) multiples, we believe private banks offer a compelling opportunity to generate returns above the broader market.Companies and sectors well-positioned to meet the evolving needs of India’s growing population may present the most attractive long-term investment opportunities. The success of businesses in the food delivery and quick commerce segments—both uniquely suited to the Indian market—demonstrates the potential for high-growth opportunities within the broader consumption sector. Additionally, the financialization of the economy continues to create compelling businesses.We also see significant potential in the domestic manufacturing sector, particularly in areas such as energy transition, electronics manufacturing, railways, and defense, as these segments offer strong growth potential and earnings visibility over the medium term.However, investment outcomes are largely determined by the price paid, making it crucial to remain mindful of valuations at all times.How do you approach asset allocation in a volatile market scenario to ensure consistent returns for policyholders?Asset allocation is a critical component of financial planning, and a well-structured asset allocation framework can help investors achieve superior risk-adjusted returns. In this context, the role of an experienced financial planner becomes crucial, as asset allocation decisions must be tailored to an individual’s specific needs and financial situation. While every investor aims to maximize returns, the focus should be on making strategic asset allocation decisions that align with their unique financial goals and risk tolerance.In recent years, there has been a noticeable shift in saving patterns. Traditionally, savings were concentrated in physical assets such as real estate and gold; however, there is now a gradual transition toward financial assets, including insurance, mutual funds, and direct equity investments. We believe this shift represents the early stages of a structural transformation, one that is likely to continue for many years.As the financialization of savings accelerates, the importance of efficient asset allocation becomes even more pronounced. Given the complexities involved, we strongly recommend seeking professional financial advice to optimize asset allocation and enhance long-term wealth creation.With the launch of the Bajaj Allianz Life Focused 25 Fund, how does a concentrated portfolio of up to 25 high-growth potential stocks provide an edge over diversified funds, and what makes this strategy particularly relevant in the current market environment?The growing Indian economy and flourishing entrepreneurship have created several compounders for equity investors. However, few companies outperform others over a longer period of time. For example, over the last five years, within the Nifty 100 index, more than 70% of the overall index return was contributed by 25 stocks. Identifying such winners and allocating large weights to such stocks in the portfolio is likely to generate better portfolio returns.What are your expectations from the Q4 earnings season? Do you believe the worst of the downgrades is behind us, and are we now entering a phase of gradual earnings recovery and growth?The outlook for Q4 FY25 earnings indicates a marginal improvement compared to the trends observed in the previous three quarters. As a result, we expect FY25 to conclude with mid-single-digit earnings growth for the Nifty 50, marking a multi-year low.However, the focus has now shifted to FY26 earnings, which we anticipate will grow by 12-13%, following a 5-6% earnings downgrade over the past six months. While a 12-13% earnings growth rate may not seem particularly strong at first glance, we believe it represents a credible target given the prevailing global uncertainties.Looking ahead to FY27, early estimates suggest a similar 13% earnings growth. If achieved, this would support India’s ability to maintain its relatively premium valuation multiples.

Legal advocacy groups sounded alarms on Saturday after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened new actions against lawyers and law firms that bring immigration lawsuits and other cases against the government that he deems unethical. In a memorandum to U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi late on Friday, Trump said lawyers were helping to fuel "rampant fraud and meritless claims" in the immigration system, and directed the Justice Department to seek sanctions against attorneys for professional misconduct. The order also took aim at law firms that sue the administration in what Trump, a Republican, called "baseless partisan" lawsuits. He asked Bondi to refer such firms to the White House to be stripped of security clearances, and for federal contracts they worked on to be terminated. Ben Wizner, a senior lawyer at the American Civil Liberties Union, said the new directive sought to "chill and intimidate" lawyers who challenge the president's agenda. Trump has separately mounted attacks on law firms over their internal diversity policies and their ties to his political adversaries. "Courts have been the only institution so far that have stood up to Trump's onslaught," Wizner said. "Courts can't play that role without lawyers bringing cases in front of them." The ACLU is involved in litigation against the administration over immigrant deportations, including the expulsion of alleged Venezuelan gang members. The Trump administration has been hit with more than 100 lawsuits challenging White House actions on immigration, transgender rights and other issues since the start of the president's second term. Legal advocacy groups, along with at least 12 major law firms, have brought many of the cases. A White House spokesperson, Taylor Rogers, said "President Trump is delivering on his promise to ensure the judicial system is no longer weaponized against the American people." The Justice Department did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the memorandum, which directed Bondi to assess lawyers and firms that brought cases against the government over the past eight years. Law firm Keker, Van Nest & Peters, which is working with the ACLU in an immigrant rights case against the administration, said in a statement that it was "inexcusable and despicable" for Trump to attack lawyers based on their clients or legal work opposing the federal government. Representatives from other prominent law firms that are representing clients in cases against Trump's administration, including Hogan Lovells, Jenner & Block, Perkins Coie and WilmerHale, did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Trump issued executive orders this month against law firms Perkins Coie and Paul Weiss, suspending their lawyers' security clearances and restricting their access to government buildings, officials and federal contracting work. The president also last month suspended security clearances of lawyers at Covington & Burling, in each case citing the firms' past work for his political or legal opponents. The Keker firm on Saturday called on law firms to sign a joint court brief supporting a lawsuit by Perkins Coie challenging the executive order against it. Paul Weiss on Thursday struck a deal with Trump to rescind the executive order against it, pledging to donate the equivalent of $40 million in free legal work to support some of the administration's causes such as support for veterans and combating antisemitism. Lawyers are bound by professional ethics rules that require them to investigate allegations before filing lawsuits and not deceive the courts. Imposing disciplinary sanctions on lawyers who violate such rules falls on the court system, not federal prosecutors, though prosecutors can charge lawyers with criminal misconduct. Some lawyers aligned with Trump faced professional discipline over claims that they violated legal ethics rules in challenging Democrat Joe Biden's 2020 presidential election win over Trump. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who later was an attorney for Trump, was disbarred in New York and in the District of Columbia over baseless claims he made alleging the 2020 presidential election was stolen. Lawyers for Civil Rights, a legal advocacy group suing the administration over deportations, called Trump's sanctions threat hypocritical in a statement to Reuters, saying Trump and his allies "have repeatedly thumbed their noses at the rule of law."

The government has withdrawn the 20% duty on onion export, effective from April 1, 2025 thus removing all the restrictions on the export of this kitchen staple after 1.5 years. Starting from October 2023, the government had taken measures to check export by means of duty, minimum export price (MEP) and even to the extent of export prohibition for almost five months, from December 8, 2023 till May 3, 2024. The export duty of 20% which now stands removed has been in place from September 13, 2024. “The emerging production and prices scenario came as welcome breather for the country which had to grapple with the twin issues of lower domestic production and high international prices from August, 2023,” said the Ministry of Consumer Affairs in a release. The onion farmers from Maharashtra had been agitating since a month demanding the removal of the 20% export duty. Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadanvis had written a letter to the central government with a request to remove the duty. “The delay in the removal of the export duty has caused enormous losses for farmers due to suppressed prices. The government may have to give incentives for exports in the coming months are rising arrivals May drive the prices downwards,” said Bharat Dighole, president, Maharashtra Onion Growers’ Association. “Despite export restrictions, the total onion export during FY 2023-24 was 17.17 lakh tonnes and FY 2024-25 (till 18th March) was 11.65 lakh tonnes,” the release said. According the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, even though, the current mandi prices are above the level during corresponding period of previous years, a decline of 39% is observed in the all-India weighted average modal prices. The all-India average retail prices recorded a decline of 10% over the past one month.The Ministry has said that the arrivals at the benchmark markets of Lasalgoan and Pimpalgaon in Nashik have increased this month which has been driving the prices downward. The modal prices in Lasalgaon and Pimpalgoan on March 21, 2025 were Rs.1330/qtl and Rs.1325/qtl, respectively.“The rabi production this year at 227 lakh metric tonnes (LMT) is over 18% higher than 192 LMT last year. The estimated higher production this season is expected to further ease the market prices in coming months,” the release added.