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Although concerned that a thinner majority may restrict Prime Minister Narendra Modi from carrying large-scale pro-growth reforms, billionaire investor Mark Mobius is confident that the bull run is intact and that the Sensex can even hit the 1 lakh mark before Modi finishes his third term.The 87-year-old investor, known as an India bull in global markets, expects Sensex to grow at a pace of 14-15% over the next 10 years.In this exclusive chat with ETMarkets, Mobius talks about his new book 'The Book of Wealth' and how to invest in Indian markets following the election shocker. Edited excerpts:In the ‘Book of Wealth’, you have talked about how emotion is the potion for investors. This is clearly visible at this stage in the election season when the herd mentality is very common. So how should one keep calm when the market is behaving insanely on both sides?That is a very-very important question because the herd is very prevalent in almost every circumstance in life, whether it be politics, market or shopping. And the way to avoid being caught up with the herd is by being very strong and sitting back and saying wait a minute, do I want to do this? Do I want to move in this direction? And when it comes to investing, you always have to keep in mind that the best way to get the best value is to do what other people are not doing. So, there is an old saying, the best time to buy is when others are selling at a very unhappy period. And the best time to sell is when everyone is greedily buying. So, you have got to keep those principles in mind. Otherwise, you will get caught up with the herd.110754214In your book, you have also mentioned about how Rakesh Jhunjhunwala could not enjoy his wealth because of health issues. Would you agree that traders die early and investors, like you, live a very long life and a happy life?Well, it depends on the trader. Some traders enjoy the trading and they get enjoyment out of it, but they have to balance their trading life with health and it is very important. So, unfortunately, many traders do it 24x7. In other words, they do not take any time for anything else and that is when they get ill and their health declines.Also Read | Stock market may have bottomed out, start hunting for bargains: Mark MobiusAnd in India, this is becoming a typical problem because of the surge in derivative trading among retail investors in particular. How do you see this trend and the impact on health?Yes, it can be very dangerous if people get involved with trading on a day-by-day basis. Particularly for individuals, as I point out in my book, it is very important to be a longer-term investor. In other words, take a longer-term view, buy a very good company and stay with it as long as the company remains profitable and is growing. Do not be swayed by market ups and downs, rumours, what your friends and neighbours are doing. You have got to be independent is probably the best way to put it.You also write about the importance of frugality in your book. Now, in a growing country like India, where the middle class has so many aspirations and we are competing against each other, don’t you think it is tougher for the Gen Z to be frugal?It is very tough because you have got a bombardment from the hype machine. I call it the hype machine, where you have got your cell phone all the time, looking at what people are buying and what are they selling, you are following certain people and you see what they are buying and selling and you want to do the same. So, you have got to be resistant to this kind of enticement, very-very important, and very difficult I might add. But it is critical if you want to become wealthy, because if you are spending all your money on frivolous things that really have no long-term value, then you are not going to become wealthy.Talking about the impact of elections, how your calculations for India changed, given the fact that PM Modi is coming back but with a thinner majority? Yes, it is unfortunate. And, of course, we have to re-evaluate the direction of the country, because my general impression has been that the Congress party has been the party of bureaucracy and of slower decision making. Now, that may be wrong in that assessment. Hopefully, the Congress party has learned a lot from what Modi has been doing and maybe will continue the policies that Modi has embraced. But that gives me some concern if Modi's reforms will be hindered by the fact that they have a lesser majority in Lok Sabha and they, of course, have the Congress Party against them. So, it is a concern. And by the way that pessimism is reflected in the market. I think a lot of other investors feel that way as well. But from a longer-term point of view, India is still an incredible place and, in fact, it might be a good time to be looking at the market with this downturn to find some investment bargains.Do you think the market bottomed out on election results day? Yes, it looks like. It may have bottomed out. But I think you have got to be cautious about that. It remains to be seen how the political situation turns out and what kind of policies will be followed by the new conglomerate of powers that take place.Prime Minister Narendra Modi has owned the success of PSUs like no other Prime Minister has ever done. Now do you think PSUs would be the worst hit? We have already seen some of the corrections playing out.Yes, I think that they will be hit and not only those but others will be hit as well as a result of the change in policies. You have seen some of the big infrastructure companies come down pretty dramatically because there is a fear that maybe infrastructure will be slowing down, the construction of roads, bridges, etc, will slow down, so that is unfortunate, but it remains to be seen. I think we have to wait to see exactly what the Congress party along with other parties decide to do and how they decide to go forward.Which other sectors besides PSUs and some of the capex-linked sectors, do you think are going to be the most affected?Well, I think when you look at the overall situation of the economy in India, the sectors that are going to be doing well in my view will be the software and technology sectors generally. Companies making computer hardware, companies going into the semiconductor area, companies doing software, those companies will not be affected as much. Maybe on the consumer side, you may see some effect, but even there, the economy is growing so fast. Even with all this political upset, those companies will do fairly well.A lot of trade we are seeing in defensive stocks like FMCG, for example, given the fact that the new government is more likely to be pro-welfare than pro-reform. So, how do you see this trade playing out?That is a big question because if you are not pro-reform, then you are really going backwards. You are not progressing. So it is very-very important for the Congress party to embrace reform and change, but that remains to be seen. I think they may have learned some lessons as a result of their failures in the past politically and maybe they will change. Do you fear that FIIs are going to de-rate India in the near term at least?I do not think so. I think FIIs realise that India is the future. They have already seen that China has problems and they want to diversify away from China. Some of these FIIs who have been badly burned in China, do not even want to go back to China, that is probably a mistake because China is still a viable market. But nevertheless, India is going to benefit from the desire of FIIs to diversify and that is very important. But at the same time, we have also seen a reversal of this buy India and sell China policy in the last one-and-a-half months.I think it is a very temporary phenomenon. Maybe some people have talked about that, but the reality is that when companies make decisions to diversify, these decisions are not made easily. In other words, they are thinking of a longer term. So, companies like Apple and Microsoft, make long-term decisions and if they made a decision to do something in India, they will proceed with that decision.What are the kind of changes in policies that you are anticipating at this stage?Well, my expectation is that the bureaucracy involved in accepting investments into India will become more streamlined. Up to now, there is a great deal of bureaucracy necessary when you want to come into India to invest and I think that has got to be simplified and made easier. If that is carried out, then there will be a tremendous flow into India by foreign investors.Earlier, you spoke about some buy-the-dip opportunities. Can you give us some ideas of where you see value emerging after the correction?Believe it or not, some of the construction and materials (stocks) will recover and do well going forward because India needs infrastructure and they definitely, regardless of what party is in power, will have to move forward on that.You had earlier said about how Sensex will hit the 1 lakh mark in next five years. So, as things stand now, do you still think that Sensex will hit 1 lakh in the next five years?Oh, definitely. We are still on that upward trajectory. There will always be corrections, but we are still in that direction. We will hit that. Maybe even before five years. India may be an exception in terms of moving faster.So, just to sum it up, you are saying that this is just a pause in the bull run, but not the end. Exactly. We are certainly not at the end of the bull run. See, generally speaking, you can say that if a country is growing at 7%, like India is now growing, the market and earnings of good companies will go up double that, 14-15%. So, you can expect the market index to be rising at that pace over the next 10 years.

The coalition of parties led by Modi is unlikely to deviate from the path of fiscal consolidation, and cooling inflation will allow the Reserve Bank of India to embark on easing later this year, according to Neeraj Seth, chief investment officer and head of APAC fundamental fixed income at BlackRock.“It’s actually a good time to be long duration in India,” Seth said in a Wednesday interview. “I wouldn’t change my view on the back of the election outcome,” he said, adding that he prefers the more liquid seven- and 10-year bonds. India’s financial markets were jolted Tuesday as results showed Modi’s party losing its majority in parliament, an outcome that Moody’s Ratings said may delay more far-reaching economic reforms and impede progress on fiscal consolidation. The country’s ten-year benchmark yield jumped by as much as 12 basis points on Tuesday the most since October before stabilizing on Wednesday. 110752494While expansionary spending is a risk, a “significant deviation” from efforts toward fiscal discipline is unlikely as the coalition of parties led by Modi retains a majority, he added. Modi’s government had taken decisive steps to rein in the deficit, bringing it down to 5.6% of gross domestic product in the fiscal year ended in March and aiming to lower it even further to 4.5% by 2025-26. India’s cooling inflation with the latest consumer price gain at 4.83% versus last year’s high at above 7% supports Seth’s view that the RBI can ease regardless of the Federal Reserve’s action. The monetary authority is expected to hold rates steady on Friday.“To some extent, India is one of the very few economies and RBI one of the few central banks where I see that the path dependency of monetary policy is not very high on the Fed,” Seth said.His optimism on the asset class is shared by abrdn and Standard Chartered Plc, which are focused on the favorable supply-demand dynamic due to inflows expected from an upcoming index inclusion. India’s bond market has attracted $6.6 billion of foreign funds this year ahead of the addition to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s emerging indexes later this month. “The structural inflows on the back of index inclusion, which will happen over the next 10 months, will provide a technically positive backdrop,” he said.

NEW DELHI: The oil ministry started the process of selecting a new chairman for Indian Oil Corp. on Tuesday, the day of the general election verdict, setting off speculation that S M Vaidya, the incumbent serving an extended tenure, may not get another term.A search-cum-selection committee comprising Public Enterprises Selection Board chairperson Mallika Srinivasan, oil secretary Pankaj Jain, and Ratnagiri Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd CEO Mukesh Surana will evaluate candidates.Some industry executives were puzzled by the timing of the job advertisement for the new IOC chairman as it came on election verdict day. The selection panel was formed last year but has begun the process only now.Not much needed to be read into the timing, a person familiar with the matter said, adding that the committee is open to all candidates and the eligibility conditions didn’t favour the incumbent.The job advertisement specifies that candidates must be employed “in a regular capacity – and not in a contractual/ad-hoc capacity” in either government, a state company or a private company on the date of the vacancy, which is September 1, 2024. They can’t be older than 58 years if they work at Indian Oil or 57 if they are employed with another company.Vaidya doesn’t meet the criteria as he would be 61 in August. He retired last August as IOC chairman and was instantly reemployed on contract for a year in the same position following a rare reappointment order by the government. Vaidya’s term ends this August and executives at Indian Oil and other oil firms are speculating if he could get another term.The selection committee “may also recommend relaxation in the eligibility, age, and qualifications/experience criteria in respect of outstanding candidates,” the job advertisement said.While seeking to appoint a new chairman for Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) in 2022, a selection committee had changed the criteria making retired executives also eligible. This helped the committee pick Arun Singh, a retired BPCL chairman, as the new chairman of ONGC.The petroleum ministry had recommended a 2-year tenure extension for SM Vaidya last year, but the Appointments Committee of the Cabinet (ACC) allowed just one year. Ahead of the general election, the petroleum ministry proposed another one-year extension for Vaidya but it was rejected by the prime minister’s office.

Shares of Nvidia rallied to record highs on Wednesday, with the AI chipmaker's stock market valuation hitting the $3 trillion mark and overtaking Apple to become the world's second most valuable company. The latest rally in Nvidia comes as it prepares to split its stock ten-for-one, effective on June 7, a move that could increase its appeal to individual investors.The surge in Nvidia's stock market value above Apple's underscores a shift in Silicon Valley, where the company co-founded by Steve Jobs has dominated since it launched the iPhone in 2007.Microsoft, based in Redmond, Washington, remained the world's most valuable company with a market value of $3.14 trillion as its shares climbed 1.5%.Nvidia's stock has surged 147% so far in 2024, with demand for its top-of-the-line processors far outstripping supply as Microsoft, Meta Platforms and Google-owner Alphabet race to build out their AI computing capabilities and dominate the emerging technology.It has rallied nearly 30% just since May 22, when Nvidia issued its latest stellar revenue forecast.In Wednesday's trading session, Nvidia's stock briefly hit an intra-day record high of $1,223.59, giving it a value of $3.010 trillion at a moment when Apple's stood at about $3.005 trillion.The chipmaker's stock was last up 4.9% at $1,221.51, giving Nvidia a market value of $3.004 trillion.Apple's market capitalization was last at $3.00 trillion as its stock climbed 0.7%.Optimism about AI lifted chip stocks broadly on Wednesday, with the PHLX chip index surging about 4%. Super Micro Computer, which sells AI optimized servers built with Nvidia chips, climbed nearly 5%.Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang this week was the subject of wall-to-wall coverage on Taiwanese television and was mobbed by attendees when he visited the Computex tech trade fair in Taipei, where he was born before moving to the United States.While Nvidia rides a wave of AI enthusiasm on Wall Street, Apple is struggling with weak demand for iPhones and tough competition in China, the world's biggest smartphone market.Some investors also view Apple as lagging other technology heavyweights as they rush to build AI features into their products and services.