Business News

Mumbai: Should investors brace for modest returns over the next few years? A study of stock market cycles for eight-year periods by Samco Securities shows that phases of exuberance follow periods of lower returns. The stock market may have entered the eight-year cycle of moderate performance in 2024, it said.The Sensex returns in rupee terms have been between 190% and 1,500% in past three bullish eight-year cycles since 1984. In bearish periods, their returns dropped to the range of 20-50%During bearish periods, the value of Indian equity holdings in dollar returns has declined. This may often prompt foreign portfolio investors to move their investments out of India to other markets."Foreign portfolio investors typically wait for early signs of return in dollar terms, before increasing their exposure, and may adopt a similar approach before decisively buying again in India," said Ramesh Mantri, chief investment officer at WhiteOak Capital AMC.120181285Mantri said that over the next eight years, market returns will largely be influenced by the earnings growth of Indian companies, which, in turn, is closely tied to the country's economic prospects.Since 2024, Sensex is down 0.9% in rupee terms and 3.9% in dollar measures."Geopolitical uncertainties, sluggish earnings visibility and stretched valuations have played a major role for the lack of returns in last one year," said Apurva Sheth, head of research at Samco Securities. "Apart from this, the most important factor that drives these cycles is the principle of reversion to the mean-a tendency for prices to return to their long-term averages after deviating too far."

White House said that Trump's latest tariff hike brings China's rate to 145 per cent. The US had announced 125 per cent tariff on China on Wednesday. "Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately. At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable," Trump posted on Truth Social on Wednesday. Additionally, Trump had 'paused' tariffs on 75 other countries for 90 days. Trump's latest move to pause tariffs for the world but China has further intensified the ongoing trade war."China has taken, and will continue to take, resolute countermeasures to safeguard is sovereignty, security and development interests," the ministry said.The Chinese Foreign Ministry asserted that the U.S. tariffs not only threaten China's economic interests but also undermine international fairness and justice. The Asian country also emphasized that protectionism is a "one-way road" leading to mutual economic harm."The cause of the United States does not win the support of the people and will ultimately end in failure," a spokesperson said, framing the U.S. approach as one marked by economic bullying that would backfire against its creators.Despite China's reluctance to engage in a trade war, officials made it clear that they will not shy away from defending their national interests. "China does not want to fight them, but will not fear when they come our way," the Foreign Ministry said, reiterating that China is prepared to take resolute measures to protect its sovereignty and economic development.The Chinese government has positioned itself as a proponent of multilateralism and fair trade, vowing not to sit idly by while international trade rules and the multilateral trading system are undermined. "We will continue to safeguard our legitimate rights and interests and work towards a stable, cooperative global trade environment," the Ministry said.As tensions mount, China has taken its grievances to the World Trade Organization (WTO), seeking dispute consultations over what it deems as violations of international trade agreements by the U.S.