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“We also foresee reforms to attract foreign investment, simplification of the tax regime, and prioritization of sustainability and green energy,” says Gurpreet Sidana, CEO- Religare Broking Ltd.In an interview with ETMarkets, Sidana said: “Initiatives to boost the rural economy, MSME sector and job creation should also be in focus,” Edited excerpts:We are trading near fresh record highs in June. What is fueling optimism? The selloff on the result day was driven by rumours that the NDA might not be able to form the government due to coalition parties potentially switching to the INDI Alliance.However, once there was clarity that the coalition parties of NDA would join hands with the BJP to form the government, the markets saw a sharp rally, recouping losses and hitting fresh record highs.The positive trends in global markets, favourable domestic economic data, and optimism regarding corporate earnings growth have further bolstered market sentiment. What is your take on the Fed decision and possible rate trajectory? The Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain steady interest rates indicates a cautious stance amid mixed economic indicators.Although inflation appears to be cooling off, the strong labour market and resilient consumer spending indicate underlying economic strength.Future rate decisions will likely depend on upcoming data; if inflation continues to stay below target, a rate cut may occur in the fourth quarter this year or early next year.The Fed remains dedicated to balancing growth with price stability, highlighting the importance of data dependency in its policy adjustments. The next big event that markets will track is the Final Budget 2024. What are your expectations from the big event? As always, expectations are high across all segments, from industries to the common man.We anticipate that the Final Budget 2024 will incorporate fiscal measures to boost economic growth, increase infrastructure spending, and incentives to promote domestic manufacturing in strategic sectors.Sector wise, we expect Defence, Railways, Infrastructure and PSU sectors would benefit due to policy continuation and expansion from the government.We also foresee reforms to attract foreign investment, simplification of the tax regime, and prioritization of sustainability and green energy.Additionally, initiatives to boost the rural economy, MSME sector and job creation should also be in focus. How are FIIs looking at India in the Modi 3.0 era? At the onset of Modi 3.0, we have seen strong cash and futures based buying in the index and stocks. Before the elections, FII long index exposure was around 15%, and now it is around 55%.This clearly indicates that Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) hold a positive outlook on India, driven by expectations of ongoing economic reforms, political stability, and pro-business policies.They foresee improvements in infrastructure, further economic liberalization, and incentives for foreign investments.FIIs are particularly optimistic about sectors such as manufacturing and renewable energy, recognizing their strong growth potential.Additionally, India's demographic dividend and consumption potential make it an appealing market and strengthens investor confidence. How should one play small & midcaps in Modi 3.0? There are mixed voices, some say that large caps are likely to do better while some are looking at moderate returns from broader markets. What are your views? Well, large-cap stocks may offer stability and are expected to perform well due to robust economic policies; small and mid-cap stocks have higher growth potential, benefiting from targeted reforms and government support.Yet, investors should refrain from aggressive approach on the mid and small cap space in the short term.A balanced approach is advisable. Investors should prioritize fundamentally strong companies with strong management, low debt, and strong growth prospects.Diversifying across sectors can help mitigate risks. Staying informed about market trends, policy changes, and global economic conditions will be crucial for making well-informed investment decisions in the broader market. Which sectors are on your buy list and sectors could see some profit-taking after the recent rally? We are bullish on the Defence, Railways, Infrastructure, and Banking sectors. However, investors should be cautious with the IT and Real Estate sectors, as these might see some underperformance.Auto sector is also likely to do well, propelled by growing incomes, accelerating urbanization, and infrastructural growth.Investors may consider booking profits in companies where valuations appear stretched and future growth prospects seem limited. We are almost through with the first half of 2024 – how do you see H22024 for India Inc. in terms of earnings? The second half of 2024 looks promising for India Inc., driven by ongoing economic recovery, strong domestic demand and consumption, and favourable government policies that are expected to fuel growth.Corporate earnings should benefit from improved margins due to moderating inflation and stabilized supply chains.Additionally, an anticipated above-normal monsoon is expected to ease inflation and boost rural growth, further supporting earnings. However, global economic uncertainties and higher interest rates could present challenges.Overall, a cautiously optimistic outlook is warranted, with selective stock picking based on fundamentals and growth prospects. What is the biggest risk this bull market faces? The biggest risk this bull market faces is geopolitical tension and political instability, both domestically and globally.Globally, geopolitical tensions such as conflicts or trade disputes, can disrupt global supply chains and can create market volatility.High inflation led prolonged high interest rates can also impact investor confidence. Domestically, political instability can lead to policy uncertainty, affecting business sentiment and investment decisions.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)

An anti-green backlash in 2024’s global election-supercycle is already taking a toll on environmental, social and governance-focused assets, with an ultimate test still to come in the US presidential vote.Investors have pared exposure to sectors including renewable energy and electric cars as candidates in some of the dozens of nations holding polls this year have raised concerns over the costs and speed of efforts to curb emissions.A shift to clean energy “is just not going to be a straight line like maybe we all hoped for,” said Sarah Norris, head of ESG equities and manager of the Global Impact Equity strategy at abrdn plc, which has trimmed some holdings in renewable project developers. 111272263Greater uncertainty over the transition away from fossil fuels, and tougher political rhetoric, have seen clean energy firms jolted following recent polls in India, South Korea and Europe, though some have since recovered ground.A Solactive European Renewables gauge has dropped about 3% since this month’s European Parliament election — which saw support slump for Green candidates.Government debt has tumbled in France with Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally leading polls ahead of a June 30 vote in France, and development bank SFIL SA postponed a green bond sale.In the US, a backlash against green principles and positioning for a potential new Donald Trump presidency have contributed to a surge in liquidations of exchange-traded funds aligned with ESG goals, and seen the largest-ever quarterly outflows from products tied to the theme. Bets by hedge funds against the $2.2 billion iShares Global Clean Energy ETF, a flagship renewables fund, have risen to the highest in a year, short interest data compiled by Bloomberg shows. Investors are weighing both green pushback and higher-for-longer interest rates. The ETF has declined more than 22% in the past 12 months, compared with a 26% gain in the S&P 500 Index.Pictet Asset Management’s Clean Energy Transition Strategy has reduced holdings of EV stocks and is retaining only a small exposure to renewable energy, said Yi Shi, client portfolio manager. Though few investors expect Trump to scrap President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, which offers support for green industries, many are considering the impact of any renewed move to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement on global warming, or to ease environmental regulations. A Trump victory would threaten $369 billion of tax incentives, grants and loans for clean energy, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Mirova SA’s Co-Head of Fixed Income Bertrand Rocher said he’s stopped buying more US debt ahead of the November election because both Trump and Biden have inflation-fanning programs. Utility stocks — some of which have already benefited from Biden’s IRA — are a potential alternative in the US to clean energy companies, said Nordea Investment Management AB portfolio manager Johan Swahn. In Europe, data-center operators look attractive as they’re less impacted by debate over green policies, according to abrdn’s Norris. There is “some movement in Europe where we believe that a wait-and-see stance is warranted,” on green investments, said Ulrik Fugmann, co-head of the environmental strategies group at BNP Paribas Asset Management.

Lok Sabha Speaker Elections: For the first time in Lok Sabha history, an election for the Speaker's post will take place on Wednesday. The BJP's ruling NDA government and the Congress-led INDIA opposition could not reach a consensus, leading to this unprecedented scenario.Lok Sabha Speaker Elections: Candidates and Their BackgroundsThe contest features BJP's Om Birla, a three-time MP from Kota, Rajasthan, and Congress' Kodikunnil Suresh, an eight-term parliamentarian from Mavelikara, Kerala. Suresh is the longest-serving parliamentarian in the 18th Lok Sabha. Birla previously served as the Speaker in the 17th Lok Sabha.Voting Procedure and Schedule for Speaker's postBoth the BJP and Congress have issued three-line whips to their members, mandating their presence in the Lok Sabha from 11 am until the end of proceedings on Wednesday. The Speaker election is scheduled for 11 am on June 26. Following the election, President Murmu will address a joint sitting of both houses of Parliament on June 27.Failed Consensus and the Deputy Speaker's PostThe election follows the NDA's refusal to accept the Opposition INDIA bloc's demand for the Deputy Speaker's position in exchange for support for the NDA nominee. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi said, "We have said to Rajnath Singh that we will support their Speaker (candidate) but the convention is that the post of Deputy Speaker is given to the Opposition."Suresh, after filing his nomination, remarked, "This is the party's decision... not mine. There is a convention... that Deputy Speaker will be from the opposition. But they (the BJP) are not ready to do this. We were waiting till 11.50 am... but there was no response. So we filed the nomination."Lok Sabha: Political Dynamics and MajorityThe NDA holds a clear majority with 293 MPs in the 543-member Lok Sabha, while the opposition INDIA bloc comprises 234 MPs. The BJP's failure to secure a majority mandate alone, with only 240 seats, has added complexity to the election dynamics.Consensus Attempts and Opposition StrategyEfforts by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kiren Rijiju to build consensus with opposition leaders failed. The opposition insisted on a commitment from the BJP that the Deputy Speaker would be an opposition MP, a demand the BJP was unwilling to meet.Union Minister Piyush Goyal countered this, stating, "There is no precedent to suggest the Deputy Speaker's post must go to a member of an opposition party."Trinamool Congress's Role and ReactionAccording to a news report by NDTV, the Trinamool Congress, a part of the INDIA bloc, was not consulted about Suresh's nomination, leading to potential internal discord. Trinamool MP Abhishek Banerjee expressed, "We were not contacted about this... there was no discussion. Unfortunately, this is a unilateral decision." However, visuals later showed Banerjee engaged in a private discussion with Congress MP Rahul Gandhi inside Parliament.Historical Context and Current Session of Lok SabhaThis is the first Lok Sabha session post-general elections, which began on June 24 and will conclude on July 3. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) secured 293 seats, while the INDIA bloc obtained 234 seats. The BJP's struggle to form its third successive government without support from allies like Chandrababu Naidu's TDP and Nitish Kumar's JDU highlights the complex political landscape.Union Aviation Minister Ram Mohan Naidu criticized the opposition for placing conditions, stating, "Democracy does not work on conditions... NDA did what it could to build consensus for the Speaker's post. When it was their turn (the opposition's) to help... they put up a condition. This was never a convention to support Speaker... They want to do politics in this too."Earlier, while the INDIA bloc was awaiting the BJP's response, Rahul Gandhi referred to reports quoting Prime Minister Narendra Modi calling on the opposition to work "constructively" with his government. Gandhi said, "Today newspapers reported that PM Modi said the opposition should cooperate constructively. Rajnath Singh called Mallikarjun Kharge and asked him to extend support... entire opposition said we will support but convention is Deputy Speaker should be from our side. Rajnath Singh said he would call back... but he has not yet... PM is asking for cooperation but our leader is getting insulted..."The stage is set for a significant political contest as the Lok Sabha Speaker election approaches. The outcome will not only determine the Speaker but also set the tone for future interactions between the ruling coalition and the opposition in the 18th Lok Sabha.(With inputs from agencies)

InCred Equities said the chemical sector looks ripe for a fresh up-cycle which is expected to last for the next few years. The brokerage said some stocks look ripe for almost 100% upside and more. “These stocks have either reversed from a long-term support or made a multiyear breakout retest which make them quite safe as compared to the stocks which are witnessing a breakout which can fail if the markets correct,” said InCred’s VP, Gaurav Bissa, in a client note. 111270901“These names will correct if there is a correction in the market but overall, the long-term trend has reversed.”

Mumbai: ICICI Bank on Tuesday became the sixth Indian company to achieve a market capitalisation of $100 billion after the stock rose by 2.48% to close at a record high of ₹1,199.05. The private lender is the second-largest bank in India by market capitalisation, after HDFC Bank. It is also the fifth-largest entity by market value.In December 2020, ICICI Bank's market capitalisation crossed $50 billion, and within 10 months, it exceeded $75 billion in October 2021.Shares of ICICI Bank have rallied 20% so far this year compared to a 9% gain each in the Nifty and Bank Nifty during this period. The other five companies that have reached the $100 billion market capitalisation milestone are Reliance Industries, Tata Consultancy Services, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, and Infosys. Notably, Infosys reached this milestone in January 2022 but could not maintain that level for long.Currently, Reliance Industries is leading the list with a market capitalisation of $236 billion, followed by TCS with a market value of $166 billion.

NEW DELHI: A sluggish monsoon leading to subpar kharif sowing could queer the pitch further for food inflation, which already remains elevated, according to economists, even as some of them said they were hopeful of an improvement in rainfall as the season progresses."We have already seen a surge in some of the vegetable prices and will have to weigh the upside risks to food inflation in due course," said Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist, Kotak Mahindra Bank.Retail inflation hit a 12-month low of 4.75% in May but food inflation stayed almost unchanged at elevated level of 8.69%.June rainfall has been below normal, as per the India Meteorological Department. "At the moment, the monsoon may be patchy and delayed but expectations are that towards the end of June and early July, we should see a fairly big comeback of the rains. We thus have to wait and watch. Having said that, of course, too much delay will have adverse effects on food inflation," said Bhardwaj.A note from Madhavi Arora, lead economist at Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd, said cumulative rainfall till June 21 was 17% below the long-term average (LTA), while the weekly rainfall (till June 19) was 33% below the LTA. Overall, basin-wise reservoir levels were in deficit and below last year's level as well. On June 20, the overall level was about 9% below the LTA and 19% below last year's level."Stalled rainfall across majority of the country has led to a delay in kharif sowing. A significant delay in kharif sowing will impact food output and the rabi sowing season, as farmers will have less time to prepare their fields after the kharif harvest," Arora said, adding that retail food prices had increased due to persistent heatwave conditions.However, she said, vegetable prices may decline from August if the monsoon picks up, even as prices of milk and pulses stay high due to tight supplies.Other economists are banking on monsoon picking up the pace in the coming weeks."Even though it is too early to make predictions about monsoon impact, if monsoon advancement improves in the coming weeks we could see food inflation moderate, "said Rajani Sinha, chief economist at CareEdge Group.Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, said, "As of today, even if there is a delayed monsoon, we do not know what the delay in terms of sowing has been and how much can be recouped later on as we are just two weeks into the monsoon."Food inflation, he said, was already showing an upward trend owing to vegetable prices going up due to reduced supply.DK Pant, chief economist at India Ratings, said farmers adopt short duration crops that can be harvested within eight to 10 months, instead of those that take longer to mature, to reduce losses caused by inadequate rainfall in June.