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Book profits now or stay invested? Nilesh Shah's take

June 24, 2024 - 11:45am
Nilesh Shah, MD, Kotak AMC, says many people depend upon their next generation and become a burden on them. It is important that we create financial security for every Indian through capital market participation whereby they can generate real return. How can you make a country rich when 93% of savings went into either below inflation or inflation return products? Only 7% went into above inflation return products. We have to ensure that the 7% keeps on increasing and Indians become wealthy.For medium term and long-term investors, we can endlessly argue that markets are expensive. We can make a case that stock valuations are above that comfort zone. But when you have so much liquidity, both local and global, then is it wise to come out of the market or book your profits or not stay invested because liquidity can take this market higher before it peaks out?Nilesh Shah: Undoubtedly markets can remain irrational more than you can remain solvent. And it is not that Indian markets barring few certain categories are looking at all-time high valuation or very expensive mode. Yes, one can say that Indian investors are like Indian cricket spectators. When the Indian cricket team is winning all the matches in T20, we are expecting them to go and win the World Cup. The same way, Indian markets are also discounting all the positives and hoping that this trend will continue. Are we more optimistic about our markets? Answer is undoubtedly yes. But are we being irrational about our market barring few pockets? Answer is no. How much of the strength in the market is local and which flows are purely global in nature? While we feel very happy about India, the bottom line here is that Nasdaq is at an all-time high, S&P is doing very well. So, the pillar on which equities are rallying is also global.Nilesh Shah: Undoubtedly, it is a combination of local as well as global. Global investors have been behaving in an erratic manner. One month they are buyers, two months they are sellers. They are sellers in one month, buyers in two months. But there have been net additional purchases over the last two-three years and that is how they have contributed to our markets. Obviously, the market is also expecting there will be no impact of geopolitical escalation on energy prices. The Fed will cut rates, so to some extent our markets are combining both local and global factors. We understand that you were also part of the pre-budget meetings and consultations with the finance minister. Any colour on what we should expect in terms of the taxation, both for the capital markets and at an individual level because that is where all the hopes are.Nilesh Shah: So, it was a one-way communication from our side, not two-way communication from their side. But we recommended the finance minister that you have done an excellent job and we, the mutual fund industry, are the biggest beneficiary of the great work done by the finance ministry. The vote on account laid the foundation for the rally in the market when people realised that the budget could be pro-growth in terms of investment and infrastructure and yet fiscally prudent. With RBI's additional dividend of almost Rs 1,23,000 crore over last year, the fiscal space has expanded. They can provide a budget which is vote on account, continued forward in terms of fiscal prudence as well as growth. One recommendation from the mutual fund industry was that under the aegis of our regulator SEBI, we have done very good work on spreading financial awareness. And today we are seeing 4.5 crore investors securing their financial freedom through investment in mutual fund. But there is still a large portion who has not yet invested into financial instruments appropriately. During FY21-23, mutual funds got about Rs 4 lakh crore flows; Rs 9 lakh crore or double of that money went into currency notes which are depreciating assets. So, we requested the finance minister to launch a copy of the Jan Dhan scheme which provided banking to every Indian, a similar Jan Nivesh Yojana which can create a push and a pull both for financial investment, let people secure their financial freedom through the capital market. Ridham Desai last week said that if you look at Indian savers, less than 5% is in equities. A similar kind of thought is echoed by you and all the other market veterans. Can I say that this entire domestic flow coming into Indian equities is a multi-year flow and we are looking at least Rs 2,20,000-2,30,000 crore a year flow continuing for next four-five years?Nilesh Shah: When we launched the SIP Day, we talked about a retail tsunami coming into the market and those were the dreams. We hope that one day it will become true well before we retire. Today, it is glad to see that 4.5 crore Indians are securing their financial freedom through mutual fund investment. People who started early are today enjoying the fruits. The returns on their portfolio are well beyond their expectations. Now, our focus is that we have got an early start. Now, we have to build the momentum. People lose money in Ponzi schemes. People lose money by investing in currency notes and cryptos and NFTs. People spend fortunes in the lottery. All these things do not create financial freedom for them. Many people depend upon their next generation and become a burden on them. I think it is important that we create financial security for every Indian through capital market participation whereby they can generate real return. How can you make a country rich when 93% of savings went into either below inflation or inflation return products? Only 7% went into above inflation return products. We have to ensure that the 7% keeps on increasing and Indians become wealthy.
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How cheap are electric vehicle (EV) loans?

June 24, 2024 - 11:44am
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Will cryptos like bitcoin grow or disappear?

June 24, 2024 - 10:50am
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India needs responsible opposition: PM Modi

June 24, 2024 - 10:36am
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi ahead of the inaugural session of 18th Lok Sabha said, "India needs responsible opposition. People want substance not slogans, they want debate and diligence, not disturbance in Parliament."Welcoming the new parliamentarians, the Prime Minister said, today is a historic day for democracy.PM Modi, who is also an MP from Varanasi said, this session is a very important one as it can help India achieve dream of Viksit Bharat."India saw the world's biggest elections, it was completed with great pomp and it is a matter of pride. This election was also important because after independence, this was the 2nd time that a government got third consecutive term."PM Modi criticises Indira Gandhi's EmergencyPM Modi noted Emergency's 50th anniversary that falls on June 25, and called it a 'black spot' on India's democracy when Constitution was discarded."Tomorrow is June 25. Those who are dedicated to the dignity of the Indian Constitution and have faith on democratic traditions, for them June 25 is a day that can never be forgotten. Tomorrow marks the completion of 50 years of black spot on Indian democracy. New generation will never forget how Indian Constitution was rejected, destroyed and country was turned into a prison, through declaration of Emergency," said Modi."I Want to assure people that our government will work three times more in its third term and deliver three times more," the PM added.The count of young parliamentarians is pretty good, he said.Expected in the first session, which will run until July 3, is a preview of the PM's plans for his third term and the likely formal appointment of Rahul Gandhi as leader of the opposition -- a post vacant since 2014.Minister of Parliamentary Affairs Kiren Rijiju on Monday called for a "peaceful and productive" session
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4 bank stocks that may outperform the market

June 24, 2024 - 10:18am
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Mahtab takes oath as protem speaker of new LS

June 24, 2024 - 10:17am
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F&O stocks to buy today: RIL, Escorts among top 10 trading ideas

June 24, 2024 - 9:50am
Indian market is expected to trade lower on Monday tracking weak global cues.The Nifty future closed negative with losses of 0.52% at 23460 levels on Friday. India VIX was down by 1.24% from 13.34 to 13.18 levels.On the options front, the maximum Call OI is placed at 24,000 and then towards 23,500 strikes while the maximum Put OI is placed at 23,000 and then towards 23,500 strikes.Call writing is seen at 23,500 and then towards 23,700 strikes while Put writing is seen at 23,400 and then towards 23,100 strikes.“Options data suggests a broader trading range in between 23,200 to 24,000 zones while an immediate range between 23,300 to 23,700 levels,” says Chandan Taparia, Analyst-Derivatives at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited.“The Nifty has been forming higher highs from the last five weeks and buying is attempting at any dips,” he said.“Now the Nifty has to continue to hold above 23,500 zones to extend the move towards 23,667 and 23,750 zones whereas supports are placed at 23,400-23,250 zones,” recommended Taparia.We have collated a list of stocks from the F&O basket along with cash market from various experts for traders who have a short-term trading horizon:Expert: Chandan Taparia, Analyst-Derivatives at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited told ETBureauEscorts: Buy| Target Rs 4530| Stop Loss Rs 4230IREDA: Buy| Target Rs 197| Stop Loss Rs 182Apollo Tyres: Buy| Target Rs 525| Stop Loss Rs 490F&O Strategy –JSW Steel Future (27 June Expiry): Buy| Target Rs 985| Stop Loss Rs 912Havells Future (27 June Expiry): Buy| Target Rs 1975| Stop Loss Rs 1840Expert: Kunal Bothra, Market Expert told ETNowJubilant FoodWorks: Buy| Target Rs 575| Stop Loss Rs 535NALCO: Buy| Target Rs 202| Stop Loss Rs 188Expert: Nooresh Merani, an independent technical analyst told ETNowRIL: Buy| Target Rs 3200| Stop Loss Rs 2860Granules India: Buy| Target Rs 520| Stop Loss Rs 480IEX: Buy| Target Rs 200| Stop Loss Rs 175(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
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LS session begins today, What to expect

June 24, 2024 - 8:00am
The 18th Lok Sabha's first session is scheduled to start today, with the oath-taking ceremony for newly elected members. President Droupadi Murmu will address Parliament on June 27, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to respond on July 2. However, the Opposition is anticipated to raise concerns over issues like the NEET and UGC-NET exams during the session.Oath-taking Ceremony and Speaker's ElectionThe first session will begin with the oath-taking ceremony for newly elected members. The election of the Speaker is scheduled for June 26. The Opposition is likely to create an uproar over the appointment of BJP leader Bhartruhari Mahtab as the pro-tem Speaker, claiming that Congress member K Suresh was more eligible for the post. However, Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kiren Rijiju stated that Mahtab's consecutive seven-term tenure justifies his appointment, despite breaks in Suresh's term.In the previous two Lok Sabhas, the BJP had an absolute majority, facilitating the passage of legislative business without a leader of opposition. However, the current scenario makes the Speaker's role critical in navigating legislative processes.NEET-UG and UGC-NET Exam ControversiesThe cancellation of the UGC-NET examination due to alleged irregularities and the uproar over the NEET-UG 2024 exam results are expected to be hot topics during the session. The UGC-NET exam paper was reportedly leaked 48 hours before the exam and sold on the dark web.Railway Safety and Kolkata Train AccidentThe tragic accident of the Kolkata-bound Kanchanjunga Express, resulting in nearly 10 passenger deaths, is likely to be a point of contention. The accident was attributed to human error, highlighting unresolved issues in railway safety.President's Address and Debate on Motion of ThanksPresident Murmu will address a joint session of both houses of Parliament on June 27, followed by a debate on the Motion of Thanks. The Prime Minister is expected to respond to the debate on either July 2 or 3.Prime Minister's Oath and Panel AdministrationPro-tem Speaker Mahtab will first call upon Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Leader of the Lok Sabha, to take his oath as a member of the House. Subsequently, Mahtab will administer the oath to a panel of chairpersons appointed by the President to assist in proceedings until the Speaker election on June 26.
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N Korea criticises US for supporting Ukraine

June 24, 2024 - 7:32am
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Oil & gas, construction and IT head FPI sell list; realty gets most inflows

June 24, 2024 - 7:19am
Overseas investors were sellers to the tune of ₹12,519 crore across 11 sectors between June 1 and 15, as per data from National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL). FPIs shifted money from Oil & gas, construction, information technology and metals & mining.Oil & gas sector witnessed the largest selling by foreign investors worth ₹3,683 crore in the first fortnight of June, after seeing selling worth ₹5,554 crore in May. In 2023, the sector saw outflows worth over ₹22,000 crore. 111216905Foreign portfolio investors offloaded shares worth ₹2,660 crore in the construction sector, while IT and metals & mining too witnessed outflows worth ₹2,559 crore and ₹1,861 crore, respectively. In May, foreign investors dumped shares in construction, information technology and metals sectors worth ₹2,686 crore, ₹5,802 crore and ₹953 crore, respectively.The capital goods sector witnessed profit booking by foreign investors worth ₹137 crore in the first 15 days of June, after receiving inflows worth over ₹6,000 crore in May. Last year, the sector received robust inflows worth ₹43,936 crore.Overseas investors infused funds worth ₹9,455 crore across 12 sectors between June 1 and 15.The realty sector received the highest foreign inflows worth about ₹1,815 crore, over buying worth ₹1,347 crore in May. Telecommunications and consumer services also continued to see foreign inflows worth ₹1,736 crore and ₹1,607 crore, respectively.Financial services and construction materials sectors saw a shift in sentiment from foreign investors as they turned net buyers worth about ₹1,184 crore, ₹1,008 crore and as much as ₹302 crore in the first half of June.
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