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Hindalco Industries, the Aditya Birla Group's metals flagship company, is likely to post muted revenues even though profitability is expected to edge higher. The company will announce its fourth quarter results later today.Revenue from operations during the January-March 2024 period is likely to decline up to 6% year-on-year, while profit growth is seen up to 23% year-on-year.Novelis is expected to report improved earnings due to the destocking phase in beverage cans and third quarter being a seasonally weak quarter."Novelis' EBITDA/ton guidance of $525/ton in 4QFY24 seems achievable," said Motilal Oswal, while adding that the timeline for commissioning multiple capex is crucial.Investors also await management guidance on domestic aluminum demand along with the hedging position.How analysts expect Hindalco's Q4 earnings:NuvamaHindalco aluminium incl Utkal EBITDA to inch up by 1.8% quarter-on-quarter, amid flat volume, CoP aided marginally by higher aluminium prices. The fall in E-auction coal price in Q4FY24 will get reflected in Q1FY25 due to lag effect.We factor aluminium EBITDA/t of $885, up 1.8% quarter-on-quarter and copper EBITDA at $660/t, down 0.3% quarter-on-quarter. EBITDA/t to improve to $525, up by 5% quarter-on-quarter.Kotak EquitiesWe estimate India EBITDA (standalone + Utkal) at Rs 2800 crore with aluminum EBITDA (including Utkal) of Rs 2150 crore led primarily by lower costs and copper EBITDA of Rs 650 crore led by resilient TcRcs and a high sequential base.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

Mumbai: It appears to be a goldilocks scenario for gold - and ignoring its allure could prove costly for savers.Gold hoarding by emerging market central banks as West Asia remains on the boil adds lustre to this traditional store of value, as does the near certainty of a prolonged pause in US interest rates."Investors could increase their allocation to gold from 8-10% to 10-15%, over the next three months, given the positive outlook for gold," says Tapan Patel, fund manager - commodities at Tata Asset Management.Gold prices have moved up sharply in recent times and outperformed the Nifty 50 over a 5-year period returning 17.39% against the Nifty's return of 15.24%. However, it trailed over a 10-year period returning 9.02%, against the Nifty 50 return of 13.3%. Over the last three months, prices rose 19%, while over a year, they rose 22.8%. 110377830Wealth managers point out that there are many reasons for gold to move higher, and believe investors could accumulate it over any dips in the next 3 months. .US CPI rose 0.3% in April last month after advancing 0.4% in March and February, suggesting that inflation has resumed its downward trend at the start of the second quarter."Any flare-up in geopolitical conflicts, fiscal or monetary efforts to support the economy in the run-up to US elections and the just announced slowdown in Fed balance sheet reductions could negatively influence the inflation situation, keeping gold relevant," says Ghazal Jain, fund manager at Quantum Mutual Fund. Gold prices will also remain strong due to a flurry of buying by central banks led by China, Turkey and Russia, adds Patel. The invasion of Ukraine led to fears about risks of the US dollar exposure for many countries.This has led central banks worldwide actively accumulating gold to diversify reserves and reduce dependency on the US dollar.Retail investors in China, too, are buying gold, increasing demand for the yellow metal.Before 2020, when the Chinese government came down heavily on real estate, it was one of the most preferred modes of savings for retail investors. With the local property market out of favour, investors have now turned to gold.“Retail investors could stagger their bets in 3-4 tranches using a buy on dip strategy, instead of buying at one go,”says Anup Bhaiya, managing director, Money Honey Financial Services.He believes those investors who fall in the high tax bracket could use a mix of sovereign gold bonds and multi asset funds to build this exposure for tax efficiency, while those whose income is not subject to tax could use gold ETFs or gold funds. While some multi asset funds are taxed as equity funds, a few are eligible for capital gains tax with indexation benefit if held for 3 years.

Mumbai: Buoyed by signs of easing US inflation and India's inclusion in global bond indices from next month, foreign investors have resumed purchases of fully accessible government securities this month, reversing a six-week selling streak which saw their holdings drop by close to $2 billion.From May 8 to 22, foreign portfolio investors' holdings of fully accessible route (FAR) Indian government bonds increased ₹3,304.8 crore to ₹1.6 lakh crore, showed latest data on the Clearing Corporation.With the latest US inflation data showing a sharper-than-expected easing in price pressures after months of the gauge remaining stubbornly elevated, American bond yields have declined sharply in May, increasing the appeal of high-yielding Indian fixed-income instruments."There was this hint a couple of months back that the Federal Reserve might just keep rates high for a very, very long time. That took 10-year US yields to around 4.75% from close to 4% earlier," said Hitendra Dave, CEO, HSBC India. "I think the bulk of the reversal was to align with global yield movements. As those yields have normalised a little, we are seeing a reversal of the FPI action in Indian government bonds."Yield on the 10-year US bond was at 4.42% on Wednesday, while the Indian 10-year bond yield closed at 6.99%, the first time since June 2023 that the yield fell below 7%. Bond prices and yields move inversely.From late March, FPIs had embarked on a selling spree of FAR government bonds as the unexpectedly high US inflation prints and upside surprises in American employment data had pushed away hopes of the Federal Reserve commencing on rate cuts further into the horizon.From 1.77 lakh crore on March 21, FPIs’ holdings of FAR securities fell by 16,290 crore to 1.60 lakh crore on May 8 before the recent reversal, the data showed.The inclusion of Indian sovereign debt in JP Morgan’s emerging market bond index from June 28 is likely to bring about a stable overseas flow into the local market.“From June onwards, my broad expectation is that we will see flows in the region of around $2 billion every month because once investors come in and start investing in this country, they will realise that it’s a very deep market, a very liquid market,” said Vikas Jain, head of India trading, fixed-income, currencies and commodities, Bank of America.“The KYC (know your customer) is broadly a one-time exercise, but once you’ve done it, the settlement process is well-established. The macros also look very favourable for Indian bonds.”The inclusion in the JP Morgan index will be phased over a 10-month period, with analysts broadly expecting overseas investment of $20-30 billion to flow into the local market as a result. Indian debt will also be included in a Bloomberg index starting January 2025.

Tanya Dubash, executive director, Godrej Industries, will lead the brand management of Godrej Industries Group (GIG) that includes listed companies such as Godrej Industries, Godrej Consumer Products and Godrej Properties. Separately, Godrej Enterprises Group (GEG), comprising Godrej & Boyce and its affiliates, will be led by Nyrika Holkar, executive director.The Godrej group has been formally split between two branches in an agreement signed late last month and both sides are restructuring its shareholdings in the conglomerate that makes everything from soaps to home appliances to homes. The split has two broad entities - Godrej Enterprises and Godrej Industries. Each group will independently manage the brand for their group and is free to rebrand at their discretion but there is no compulsion for either group to rebrand, officials close to the development said.110373633"For shared businesses where both groups are allowed to operate in the same space like medical services, hospitals, education and hospitality, each group will be required to use a differentiator 'GEG' and 'GIG'," said an official aware of the plans. The two separate Godrej entities are setting up new teams and chalking out a detailed plan on sharing the common mother brand Godrej, officials said.After the formal business split, both the family groups have entered into a brand and non-compete agreement for delineation of the rights for adoption, use, ownership and registration of the Godrej brand and other non-compete agreements. Both entities - GIG and GEG - did not respond to ET's requests for a comment. The Godrej brand will continue to be shared and each Group will have trademark registrations in their respective classes to protect their current and future businesses. For the businesses (existing and future) of each group, the respective group will have the exclusive right in perpetuity to use the Godrej brand to the exclusion of the other group. There is a non-compete contemplated with respect to registration and use of the brand by one Group in the businesses of the other Group. "It is not complicated for Godrej as the management for both these groups were always separate and the areas of operations too were like chalk and cheese. So the split is largely ownership entangling and not really a management separation," said Santosh Desai, a social commentator and chief executive officer of Future Brands adding that brand split will be less messy at Godrej compared to other groups like Reliance in the past. "It is the same family splitting and five years is a long time to build a brand in case they want to compete in similar areas in the future."Both parties have entered into the brand and non-compete agreement to ensure the existing businesses carried out by the family groups and businesses of strategic importance to them are protected and can be carried on smoothly and there is no confusion for consumers or vendors on the source of products and services. In addition, the agreement said the integrity of the 'Godrej' brand should be preserved while recognising that Godrej mark is a well-known mark and the trademark is equally owned and shared by both family groups.

New Delhi: India could exempt supply of services between the head offices and local entities of foreign airline operators from the goods and services tax (GST), said people familiar with the matter.Foreign airlines with offices in India have received GST notices over the past few months for non-payment of tax on import of services by Indian entities from their head offices.The issue has been referred to the fitment committee under the GST Council and the overall view is veering around to exempting the tax and giving relief to airlines, the people said. A final call on the clarification would be taken after the examination of the issue by the fitment committee, they said. "There is a grey area on the services from head office to branch office which is unique to both airlines industry and the shipping industry as it is difficult to determine place of service in case of maintenance and rental from one office to other," a senior official told ET on condition of anonymity. The Directorate General of GST Intelligence (DGGI) last year issued notices to 12 foreign airlines on account of levy of GST on import of services by Indian branch offices.110373471Head offices of airlines or shipping firms usually provide for maintenance, payments to crew and rental cost, among others. Tax authorities claim these were services rendered by the headquarters to the local entity, one legal entity to another, and liable to tax in India.Foreign airlines have represented to the government, including the finance ministry, on the issue, saying that the place of service was both head office and branch office and airlines should be liable to pay only what is taxable in India. For instance, payment for hotel accommodation used by the Indian staff outside of India. Some shipping companies have also received similar notices. The matter was also taken up by the embassies of these countries after the DGGI summoned the management of the airlines. The DGGI has asked its officials to refrain from taking any coercive action, according to people in the know. The official cited earlier said there was a need for clarity on the issue. "It is (whether the service is taxable) required to be determined on the basis of each transaction, which can be a complicated process, especially for these two sectors," the official said.