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At a recent TV discussion where Dalal Street veteran Nilesh Shah was asked to share some stock ideas, he had no qualms about admitting that he has actually been on the receiving end of advice given by his cousins and that everyone in the audience has made far more money than what his fund managers have made.To understand whether the little guys are actually playing it smarter than the pros, we scanned the shareholding pattern of all companies with a market capitalisation of over Rs 1,000 crore to prepare a list of stocks where FII holding has gone down while retail stake has increased in the last one year. Within that list, there are at least 28 retail-dominated stocks which have given multibagger returns in 12 months.Take Inox Wind Energy, for example, which is the topper in the list with a mind-boggling return of over 600%. In the last one year, retail holding has gone up by 346 basis points to nearly 12% while FIIs have nearly halved their stake to 2.64%.Dollar money also missed the bus in case of GMR Power and Urban Infra as FII holding in the stock went down from 21.19% to 5.06% while retail ownership increased 7.72% to 13.69% in FY24. Retail bulls were proved right as the stock is up 238% in one year.Other examples where retail rebellion has left FIIs feel cornered are Eco Recycling, IRFC, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, Engineers India, Olectra Greentech, MOIL, Dhanlaxmi Bank, Tourism Finance Corporation Of India, National Aluminium Company, NHPC and Shilpa Medicare.<iframe title="Retail-dominated multibagger stocks" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-3GBF2" src="https://et-infographics.indiatimes.com/graphs/3GBF2/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="748" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();</script>The list will go up to 181 stocks if we include all scrips with at least double-digit annual returns.So does this data indicate that Mr Retail is the new don of Dalal Street with enough firepower to dictate prices against the wishes of the big boys? Well, it’s too early to say that as the Covid batch is yet to sit for a full-fledged bear market exam. "An important reason for this development is that many of these stocks have very low floating stock and, therefore, excessive demand pushes up the price. Since institutional, FII and DII, holding in these stocks is low, there is little or no selling to curb the price rise. It is too early to say that this exuberance will last long," warns VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services.The issue with low-free float shares becoming multibaggers is that they will be tested during a bear ambush. Since liquidity is low, even selling and getting out will be difficult, say analysts."A major anomaly in the Indian stock market now is that high quality largecaps are fairly valued while mid and smallcaps are excessively valued. This aberration is unlikely to last long. For long-term retail investors safety is in largecaps," Vijayakumar said.The explosive growth in the number of demat accounts from around 4 crore in April 2020 to above 15 crore now has resulted in a new trend of newbie investors chasing the broader market. Many stocks in the broader market have turned multibaggers."As far as higher retail participation is concerned, we are of the opinion that some part of financial savings towards equities is driving this trend along with many companies in the list offering strong earnings potential going forward," Manish Chowdhury of StoxBox said.So far in FY25, FIIs have sold Indian stocks worth about Rs 7,000 crore. Going forward, the early signs of reversal in FII holdings is more likely to be visible in the largecap space where allocations may happen first followed by mid and smallcap stocks.Last month, the BSE Smallcap index rallied almost 10% to beat bluechips by a wide margin. This means that happy-go-lucky retail investors have ignored warnings of froth not just by market gurus but also from the regulator Sebi.Whenever Nilesh Shah's cousin tells him, "Aaje lei lo. Kale vadhee jase. (Buy it today, it will go up tomorrow)," the stock actually goes up the next day.For now, retail is winning the battle but is yet to conquer the war.(Data: Ritesh Presswala)(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

The Indian rupee will hew a close path to the U.S. dollar over the coming three months as regular interventions from the Reserve Bank of India keeps the currency on a tight leash, a Reuters poll of analysts found. The RBI has kept the rupee in a narrow range against the dollar and is only down about 0.3% this year unlike most of its Asian peers which have weakened a lot more. A recent drop in foreign exchange reserves to $640.33 billion, a six week low, shows the central bank has been selling dollars amid conflict in the Middle East and delayed expectations for rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve. "Given the heavy-handed nature of the RBI's intervention, we expect volatility to remain contained. We may see the RBI put a firm floor under the USD/INR pair," said Abhishek Goenka of India Forex and Asset Management. Goenka added: "the Fed rate hikes getting pushed out on the stronger U.S. data seems to already be in the price." The rupee, trading around 83.47/$ on Thursday, was forecast to change hands about that level in a month and then strengthen to 83.29/$ in three months, the April 29-May 2 Reuters poll of 46 foreign exchange analysts showed. The Fed reiterated its "higher for longer" message at its recent meeting, suggesting resilient activity and inflation data have delayed considering rate cuts. The RBI is still widely expected to cut rates next quarter. Meanwhile, the Indian economy will remain the fastest growing major economy, helping the rupee in the long run. The currency was forecast to gain around 0.6% to 82.95/$ in six months and 1.0% to 82.60/$ in a year.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is set to contest the Lok Sabha elections from the Rae Bareli seat, announced the INC on Friday, the last day of filing nomination. Furthermore, the party has decided to drop Priyanka Gandhi Vadra this times around. Congress' loyalist KL Sharma will be contesting the Lok Sabha elections from Amethi, the seat Rahul Gandhi lost in the 2019 general elections to BJP leader Smriti Irani.Friday is the last date for filing nominations for the seats that will go to polls on May 20 in the fifth round of the seven-phase general elections.Rae Bareli constituency- History, significanceRae Bareli, the constituency was held by Sonia Gandhi who became a member of the Rajya Sabha.The party has won the Congress bastion in all but three Lok Sabha elections since 1951. Before Sonia Gandhi, former PM Indira Gandhi had won from Rae Bareli three times. The constituency also elected Indira's husband and Congress leader Feroze Gandhi twice, in 1952 and 1957. A member of the Nehru-Gandhi family has not contested the seat just twice, in 1962 and 1999.Both constituencies are traditional strongholds of the Gandhi-Nehru family, with its members holding these seats for decades.The Congress, which is contesting 17 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh as part of the seat-sharing deal with the Samajwadi Party (SP), has announced candidates for all the seats.Amethi- A key constituency for the GandhisAmethi is scheduled to poll in the fifth phase on May 20, with the last date for filing nominations scheduled on May 3.Rahul's defeat in Amethi, once considered a Congress 'pocket borough', at the hands of Smriti Irani in the 2019 polls was seen as a significant blow to the party's national prestige.Rahul represented Amethi in the Lok Sabha from 2004 to 2019. His father and former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi, too, was an elected member of Amethi in the Lower House from 1981 till his death in 1991. Sonia Gandhi contested elections from here in 1999 before passing the baton on to Rahul in 2004.Rahul currently represents Wayanad in the Lok Sabha while Irani is bidding for a fresh term from Amethi.