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Central banks cagey about joining the global interest-rate cutting cycle may reveal themselves this week with a quartet of decisions in advanced economies.Days after the Federal Reserve pared back projections for US monetary easing this year, policymakers from the UK to Australia are likely to signal that they’re still not convinced enough about disinflation to start lowering borrowing costs themselves. 111037578Such outcomes would reaffirm how June, originally penciled in as a month-long opening ceremony to a series of global rate cuts, may increasingly turn out to be a widespread display of hesitancy.While Canada did deliver the first such move of the Group of Seven on June 5, the European Central Bank’s reduction in borrowing costs a day later, accompanied by a higher inflation projection, showed limited enthusiasm for further easing.At the Bank of England on Thursday, a looming election and some lingering price pressures are adding to the case to wait at least until August before cutting rates.Peers in Australia and Norway, also meeting this week, are in no rush to do so either, while half of economists surveyed reckon the Swiss National Bank may avoid a second reduction for now following its bold move in March to ease before its neighbors.Decisions elsewhere may showcase the different stages of global monetary cycles, with Brazil and Paraguay expected to keep borrowing costs on hold, and Chile anticipated to slow rate cuts.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“Major central banks look set to keep interest rates on hold, having looked more likely to cut only a few weeks ago. The BOE is almost certain to keep policy unchanged in June ahead of the UK election. It’s a closer call for the SNB.”Elsewhere, US retail sales, a raft of Chinese data, and inflation numbers from the UK and Japan will be among highlights for investors this week.US and CanadaA week after a series of reports showed moderating US inflationary pressures, investors will get a look at fresh figures on consumer demand, the housing market and industrial production. Fed officials also return to the public-speaking circuit after penciling in just one rate cut for 2024.Policymakers speaking this week include Thomas Barkin, Susan Collins, Lisa Cook, Mary Daly, Austan Goolsbee, Patrick Harker, Neel Kashkari, Adriana Kugler, Lorie Logan, Alberto Musalem and John Williams.Retail sales figures out Tuesday are projected to show shoppers reengaged somewhat in May after pulling back a month earlier, underscoring a resilient consumer. Separate data are seen showing an increase in production at the nation’s factories, mines and utilities.On Thursday, housing starts data may show a modest increase in May construction from a month earlier as builders adjust to swings in underlying demand while staying diligent on inventories.A limited number of listings in the resale market, along with the recent rise in mortgage rates, is taking a toll on sales of existing homes. On Friday, the National Association of Realtors is projected to report another decline in previously owned home sales. 111037588Looking north, the Bank of Canada will release a summary of the deliberations that led it to cut rates this month, providing further insight into how policymakers reached the decision and the conditions for a rate cut at their next meeting July 24. Statistics Canada will publish population estimates for the first quarter, and retail sales data will also offer new insight into the strength of the Canadian consumer.AsiaThe week in Asia kicks off with China’s monthly deluge of data on Monday. The figures are likely show gains in industrial output and retail sales in May were slightly below the year-to-date pace, while the increase in fixed asset investment held steady at 4.2% and the drop in property investment deepened a tad. A day later, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold its cash rate target at 4.35%, with focus falling on how authorities view the inflation trajectory after consumer price growth unexpectedly picked up in April. 111037613The slowing pace of disinflation could potentially delay a pivot to rate cuts or spur another hike, according to Bloomberg Economics.Japan’s key price gauge is expected to show consumer inflation accelerated to 2.6% in May, keeping the Bank of Japan on track for a rate hike as early as next month. New Zealand’s economic growth may have edged back into positive territory in the first quarter after two straight periods of modest contractions.Japan trade data on Wednesday may show growth in exports accelerated in May to the fastest clip since November of 2022. Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Indonesia also get trade statistics. The week concludes with a blast of PMI figures for Australia, Japan and India.Meanwhile, Pakistan is trying to increase its chances of securing a new loan from the International Monetary Fund. It raised taxes in its budget last week to boost revenue and on Sunday announced that it will be increasing power prices by an average 20%.Europe, Middle East, AfricaIn the UK, consumer-price numbers on the eve of Thursday’s BOE decision may draw the focus on investors. That report could show inflation reaching the 2% target for the first time in almost three years.But with the underlying so-called core gauge likely to come in above 3% and an election campaign under way, economists predict that policymakers will keep borrowing costs on hold. Their forthcoming decision in August, featuring new forecasts, may offer a more opportune moment to begin cutting rates. 111037623The SNB decision will also take place on Thursday. Economists are evenly split on whether or not officials will lower borrowing costs in their second consecutive quarterly reduction. Keeping them on hold would guard against any acceleration in inflation and avoid a depreciation of the franc. The same day, Norway’s central bank is widely expected to keep its rate at 4.5% for the fifth straight meeting. Investors may focus on how much improving economic activity and higher wage pressure will delay plans to reduce borrowing costs, with some suggesting no action until next year.Turning east, Hungary is preparing to wrap up its more than year-long monetary easing cycle, though the slide in the forint may narrow or eliminate the central bank’s room to deliver one last cut in the European Union’s highest key rate. That’s on Tuesday.In the euro zone, the data highlight is likely to be the latest set of purchasing manager indexes for June, released on Friday, which may indicate whether or not the region’s economic pickup is gaining momentum.ECB officials scheduled to speak include President Christine Lagarde and Chief Economist Philip Lane on Monday, and Vice President Luis de Guindos on Tuesday.Another key event, taking place against the backdrop of last week’s market turmoil afflicting France, will be the release of the European Commission’s verdict on Wednesday admonishing countries in the region for breaching its 3% deficit limit.Financial turbulence is likely to be a topic when euro-zone finance ministers meet in Luxembourg later in the week. Further afield in the region: in South Africa on Wednesday, inflation is forecast to have remained steady at 5.2% in May. Meanwhile neighboring Namibia is set to maintain its rate at 7.75% amid quickening consumer price growth and to safeguard its currency peg with the rand.Latin AmericaChile’s central bank on Tuesday will likely trim its key lending rate for an eighth straight meeting though they may slow the pace of easing and deliver a quarter-point cut to 5.75%.Policymakers in Paraguay also meet this week and may opt to keep their key rate unchanged at 6% for a third straight meeting after consumer prices accelerated to 4.4% in May from 4% in April. 111037630In Mexico, much of the focus will be on the presidential transition from Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador to Claudia Sheinbaum and potential policy implications that have rattled investors.The weakness seen in the March retail sales and GDP-proxy data can be expected to extend into the April reports posted this weekColombia’s economy rebounded less than expected in the first quarter while posting negative month-on-month GDP-proxy prints in February and March. The April data due this week may show activity rebounded at the start of the second quarter.In Brazil, the central bank on Wednesday may well draw the line under its 325 basis-point easing cycle and keep the benchmark Selic at 10.5% amid unmoored inflation expectations and mounting government spending concerns. 111037633Analysts now see the key rate at 10.25% come year-end 2024, representing a 125 basis-point increase in the rate forecast since March, while the swaps market is now actually pricing in tightening toward year-end.

Nifty is stuck in a narrow range between 23300-23500, and a break on either side will lead to trending moves, says Kunal Shah, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst at LKP Securities.“The underperformance of BankNifty is preventing Nifty from moving higher; for Nifty to break on the higher side, BankNifty must start performing. The undertone remains bullish, and one should adopt a buy approach on a breakout above 23500, targeting 23,800-24,000,” he says.Edited excerpts from a chat:Nifty has rallied non-stop for the last 4 days to touch fresh record highs but has been trading within a broad range of 23300-23500. Do you see higher chances of a strong move on either side of the band in the week ahead?Nifty is stuck in a narrow range between 23300-23500, and a break on either side will lead to trending moves. The underperformance of Bank Nifty is preventing Nifty from moving higher; for Nifty to break on the higher side, Bank Nifty must start performing. The undertone remains bullish, and one should adopt a buy approach on a breakout above 23,500, targeting 23,800-24,000.How would you trade Nifty Bank in the holiday-shortened week?For Nifty Bank, one should wait for a breakout confirmation above the 50,200 mark. If the index breaks above 50,200, it will open the path to 51,000 on the upside, with strong support at 49,800. However, if the index fails to surpass this resistance zone, it may enter a sideways to mild downward move to the 49,000 mark.How does the momentum look like for sugar and ethanol-related stocks like Praj Industries and Shree Renuka Sugars?The entire buzz in the sugar sector began after the announcement of increasing the ethanol mix from 15% to 20%, which injected new momentum into the space. The outlook is positive for the near to short term, and stocks like Praj and Renuka Sugar are expected to perform well. Praj has broken its previous swing high of 650, which will now act as support in case of a decline. Investors can buy into the sugar sector in a phased manner due to its volatile nature.Sustained buying has been seen in PSU stocks. Any names that you would take a bet on in the week?Following the election outcome, there has been significant stability across the entire PSU pack, with some stocks surpassing their previous swing highs. One stock to highlight is CONCOR, which shows a strong technical chart setup with higher highs and higher lows intact on the daily chart. The stock has experienced volume-based buying in recent trading sessions, clearly indicating bullish momentum. Support for the stock is placed at 1060, with potential upside targets of 1240 and 1400.Shares of Titagarh Rail were the top performer in the week with a 29% return. Do you see some more steam left as rail stocks may remain in focus ahead of Budget preparations?The outlook for the entire railway sector appears positive, but investors should adopt a buy-on-dips approach. Titagarh has experienced delivery-based buying this week, indicating visible long-term buying interest. The stock has surpassed the resistance level of 1300, and dips toward the support would present an ideal opportunity to go long.Give us your top picks for the week.BUY PPL PHARMA AT 157, SL-150, TGT 180/200RATIONALE: The stock is on the verge of a breakout from its consolidation phase on the daily chart. The momentum indicator RSI is sustaining above the level of 60, indicating strong momentum. The stock is trading above its short-term moving average of 20 DMA, which is placed at 150 and acts as support in case of any declines. Once the stock surpasses the mark of 160, it is likely to see an acceleration of momentum towards the 180/200 mark.BUY NYKAA AT 170, SL-160, TGT-180/200RATIONALE: The stock is showing early signs of bottom formation on the long-term chart, evidenced by volume-based buying. It has taken strong support at its 100DMA and 200DMA, confirming the bottom formation. Additionally, the momentum indicator RSI is on the verge of a breakout from a falling trendline on the daily chart, which will accelerate momentum going forward.BUY CONCOR AT 1135, SL-1060, TGT-1240/1360.RATIONALE: The stock is trading in a strong uptrend, maintaining higher high and higher low formations on the daily chart. It has surpassed its 20DMA with significant volumes, indicating a bullish undertone. The lower-end support is placed at 1060, which will act as a cushion in case of any declines.

As management has expressed optimism about consumption revival and confidence in their execution, Dabur India's target price was raised to Rs 700 by domestic brokerage firm Emkay Global.Emkay Global said that they foresee Dabur benefiting from consumption recovery, with the company positioned to gain from steady distribution expansion, comprehensive portfolio category coverage, sustained focus on innovation, and adequate liquidity for bolt-on acquisitions.“Dabur has been our preferred consumption pick, given its relatively higher share of rural, diversified portfolios and its sustained thrust on NPDs,” said Nitin Gupta, Senior Research Analyst at Emkay Global.Given Dabur's diversified portfolio and better execution, the FMCG major remains Emkay’s top preference. The brokerage noted that the recent run-up in the stock partially factors in its potential demand recovery but they see Dabur well placed for any recovery in consumption.Portfolio executions have not yielded any material outcome in the past due to subdued demand but are expected to benefit from demand recovery.Dabur has been expanding the total addressable market (TAM) across brands with category extensions, which are backed well by distribution and marketing. In the last couple of years, some innovations have not seen scale-up, given a correction in the marketing budget, but these are likely to be supported ahead with higher allocations.Further, with digitization in place, the company is also well-placed to leverage shelf space at the store.The shares of Dabur closed flat on BSE at Rs 609 as of Friday.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

After a lull of five years, real estate prices in Andhra Pradesh's Amaravati region are set to soar with several land dealings expected to close as the regime in the state transitioned from YS Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSRCP to N Chandrababu Naidu-helmed NDA, breathed new life into the hitherto abandoned city project. The Andhra Pradesh Capital Region Development Authority has already notified eight tenders, calling for jungle clearance along several roads in Amaravati even as Chief Secretary Neerabh Kumar Prasad, accompanied by other key officials such as CRDA Commissioner Vivek Yadav, has already visited the region to take stock of the situation. YV Ramana Rao, president, Andhra Pradesh chapter, Confederation of Real Estate Developers Association of India (CREDAI) claimed that land prices in Amaravati started inflating two months before the 2024 simultaneous Lok Sabha and Assembly polls, anticipating Naidu's win. According to the CREDAI office-bearer, up to 50,000 acres of land inventory is available in and around Amaravati, including government and private lands. From trending around Rs 15,000 per sq yard, Rao said they are commanding a price of Rs 25,000 per sq yard now, pointing out that they have touched the prices last seen during the erstwhile TDP government between 2014 and 2019. "Real estate boom has already started. It (land prices) will keep increasing on a yearly basis and we are expecting that in 18 months the prices will double," Rao told PTI. He noted that the state government has already started working on some unfinished buildings in which up to 80 per cent work was completed such as residential quarters for bureaucrats, legislators and judges. Observing that thicket clearance work, illumination and repair work have already begun in Amaravati, Rao said in a year's time the area will become very beautiful but called for government cooperation. "What we need is infrastructure from the government like roads, drainage systems and power. These are the main things. Once the government provides these three things then we cannot catch the prices," said Rao, noting that these will catalyse private investment and development. Highlighting that real estate businessmen will embrace this opportunity, Rao also wished for a longer tenure for the TDP-led government beyond 2029 as it 'will instill investor confidence in them.' P Durga Prasad, 55, a small-time real estate businessman from Undavalli village in Guntur district is gung-ho, expecting the real estate landscape to rise like a phoenix in Amaravati area. "In the last five years, I could not close even a single real estate deal but it will pick up now, especially from January, 2025. Real estate prices will triple to compete with Bengaluru and Hyderabad. People will also buy more. Amaravati is the capital, there is no doubt about it," Durga Prasad claimed. Meanwhile, enthused by the new government taking over several villagers who pooled their lands for the capital city many years ago are hoping for happier times ahead. Reportedly, several of them have also called off their years-long agitation, demanding the installation of a single capital in Amaravati, with renewed hope in the new government. Jonnalagadda Ananda Rao, 36, from Mandadam village, who committed half-an-acre of land, said, "Some villagers have called off their agitation while some are still continuing." Sai Prasad from Thulluru, a capital region village, said people from all sections across the 29 villages have voluntarily started thicket clearance, deploying earthmovers using their own meagre resources without waiting for the government to step in. "We are all doing it very happily because all these five years we have suffered. So many families have been ravaged. Amidst these circumstances, these great election results came. And the new government has also assured that Amaravati will be the capital," Sai Prasad claimed. He further said good times have arrived for farmers in the capital area, farm labourers and others and vowed to extend full support to the new CM N Chandrababu Naidu, for attracting investments.

Close to 1,000 cases of a deadly infection are spreading rapidly across Japan, raising alarm among health officials. The disease, known as Streptococcal toxic shock syndrome (STSS), is causing severe illness and has fatal outcomes within a startlingly short period.Surge in STSS CasesSTSS cases have surged, reaching 977 by June 2nd this year. This figure has already surpassed last year’s total of 941 cases, according to the National Institute of Infectious Diseases."Most of the deaths happen within 48 hours""Most of the deaths happen within 48 hours," said Ken Kikuchi, a professor in infectious diseases at Tokyo Women’s Medical University. He highlighted the rapid progression of the disease, noting that patients can die within 48 hours of noticing initial symptoms.What is STSS?STSS, or Streptococcal Toxic Shock Syndrome, is a severe illness caused by infection with group A Streptococcus (GAS) bacteria. It is characterized by the rapid onset of shock and multi-organ failure, which can be life-threatening if not promptly treated.Symptoms and TreatmentInitial symptoms of STSS include fever, chills, muscle aches, and nausea. As the disease progresses, more severe symptoms such as low blood pressure, rapid heart rate, and organ failure can occur. Treatment involves high-dose intravenous antibiotics and supportive care.Preventive MeasuresPreventive measures include good hygiene practices, prompt treatment of streptococcal infections, and close monitoring of wounds and skin infections. Public health education on the symptoms and risks associated with group A Streptococcus infections is also crucial for early detection and treatment.Who is at Risk?"People with an open wound are at increased risk for STSS," according to the US CDC. This includes individuals who recently had surgery or a viral infection that causes open sores. However, experts don't know how the bacteria enter the body for nearly half of people who get STSS.Similar Outbreaks in Other CountriesOther countries have also experienced similar outbreaks. In late 2022, at least five European nations reported an increase in invasive group A streptococcus (iGAS) disease cases to the World Health Organization (WHO). The WHO noted that the rise in cases correlated with the lifting of COVID restrictions.

Narendra Modi seized a window to end his diplomatic purgatory with the US and Canada.The Indian prime minister arrived at the Group of Seven meetings bruised by disappointing election results and facing an outcry over a pair of assassination plots allegedly backed by his government.Yet Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, the host of the summit, gave Modi prominent placement during Friday’s events and the Indian leader took full advantage, striding over for encounters with two leaders whose governments have accused his own of murder plots.Modi was placed at center stage for the family photo, a perch that allowed him to dart over to US President Joe Biden for a brief chat. He also shared a photo of a similar greeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.Canada has accused India of killing a Sikh separatist on Canadian soil, while the US has leveled allegations of a failed attempt on another dissident in its country. India has generally downplayed the allegations, and in the US case chalked up the plot to rogue elements of the government.But Modi’s invitation to the summit is a sign of India’s role in the emerging economic race between the G-7 and its rivals, particularly China. Biden and Trudeau meeting with him, however briefly, casts doubt on how long the outcry over the assassination allegations will linger.The US has said its position on the alleged plots hasn’t changed.“We’ve made our views known on this issue, and it will be a continuing topic of dialogue between the US and India, including at very senior levels,” National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, one of Biden’s top foreign affairs aides, said Wednesday.A US official said Friday that Biden and Modi only spoke briefly.On Saturday, a grim-faced Trudeau was repeatedly asked about his interaction with Modi but did not want to engage.“I’m not going to get into the details of this issue,” he told reporters in southern Italy. “There are important, sensitive issues that we need to follow up on, but this was a commitment to work together in the coming times to deal with some very important issues.”Meanwhile, the Indian prime minister looked to be thoroughly enjoying himself at the summit. Meloni posted a clip of her and Modi, laughing cheerfully behind her.Canadian police recently arrested four Indian nationals over last year’s killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, who was gunned down in a Vancouver suburb. The case is now before the courts and could take years to wind to a conclusion.Modi’s government reacted furiously when Trudeau first accused India last September of orchestrating the assassination, rejecting the claim as baseless and expelling Canadian diplomats. Trudeau has long called on Modi to cooperate with the investigation, with the hope of moving forward constructively.Indian officials have never walked back their initial denials, but there are signs that behind the scenes, Canada and India are now cooperating more fully on sharing information about the case.That may have helped provide an opening for a conversation between the two leaders.The last time Trudeau crossed paths with Modi in person was at the G-20 in New Delhi last year, and it was a very tense meeting because Canadian officials had spent weeks privately presenting evidence to India’s government of a hit job on Canadian soil. Trudeau at the time was largely iced out by Modi at that summit and then had his departure delayed after his plane broke down.